September 12, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Mahmoud Abbas would easily defeat a Hamas challenger in a Palestinian Authority presidential election, according to a poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. 59 per cent of respondents would vote for the Fatah member, while 36 per cent would support Ismail Haniyeh.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Mahmoud Abbas would easily defeat a Hamas challenger in a Palestinian Authority presidential election, according to a poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. 59 per cent of respondents would vote for the Fatah member, while 36 per cent would support Ismail Haniyeh.

In a separate contest, Fatah member Marwan Barghouti holds a 31-point advantage over Haniyeh. Barghouti was convicted in an Israeli court and sentenced to five life terms in prison for his alleged involvement in deadly attacks by the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. Many Palestinians believe the charges against Barghouti were made up, and he is considered a political prisoner.

Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

In February, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas, which would "respect" past peace agreements with Israel. In June, amid a wave of violent clashes between Palestinian supporters of the Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza. Abbas issued a decree to form a 12-member emergency government—based in the West Bank—and expelled Hamas from the administration.

On Sept. 10, Haniyeh called for outside mediation to resolve the current political crisis. The statement suggested holding a meeting in Saudi Arabia, expressed that Hamas is ready to "return to dialogue without conditions" and described the clashes between Hamas and Fatah supporters—which left 49 people dead and more than 900 injured—as a "disagreement among brothers."

Polling Data

If new presidential elections are to take place today, and Mahmoud Abbas was nominated by Fatah and Ismail Haniyeh was nominated by Hamas, whom would you vote for?

	Sept. 2007	Mar. 2007
Mahmoud Abbas	59%	46.7%
Ismail Haniyeh	36%	45.6%
Not sure	5%	7.7%

And if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti representing Fatah and Ismail Haniyeh representing Hamas, whom would you vote for?

	Sept. 2007	Mar. 2007
Marwan Barghouti	63%	51.5%
Ismail Haniyeh	32%	43.4%
Not sure	5%	5.1%

Source: Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research

Methodology: Face-to-face interviews to 1,270 Palestinian adults in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, conducted from Sept. 6 to Sept. 8, 2007. Margin of error is 3 per cent.