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Lula Would Lose Run-Off to Serra in Brazil
(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is holding on to the lead 12 months ahead of Brazil's next presidential election, according to a poll by Datafolha published in Folha de Sao Paulo. At least 30 per cent of respondents would vote for the current head of state in three potential scenarios.
Lula—a three-time presidential candidate for the Worker's Party (PT)—won the October 2002 election with 61 per cent of the vote in a run-off against Jose Serra of the Brazilian Party of Social Democracy (PSDB). In the first round, Lula received 47 per cent of the vote, while Serra garnered 24 per cent.
The Brazilian government has been the target of criticism after Brazilian Labour Party (PTB) member Roberto Jefferson declared that members of two political organizations—the Liberal Party (PL) and the Progressive Party (PP)—received monthly payments of up to $12,000 U.S. from the government in exchange for support in the legislative branch. Jefferson has so far provided no evidence to back his allegations.
In the first list of possible contenders, 30 per cent of respondents choose Lula, while 27 per cent pick Serra. Anthony Garotinho of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) is third with 10 per cent, followed by former PT member and independent senator Heloisa Helena, Cesar Maia of the Party of the Liberal Front (PFL), and Roberto Freire of the Socialist People's Party (PPS).
In a second list, Lula gets 33 per cent of the vote against the PSDB's Geraldo Alckmin, Garotinho, Helena, Maia and Freire. Lula is at 32 per cent with former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso representing the Social Democrats.
In a prospective run-off pitting Lula against Serra, the incumbent trails by four points. In three other scenarios, Lula holds an eight-point advantage over Alckmin, a 17-point lead over Garotinho, and a 15-point advantage over Cardoso.
The next election is tentatively scheduled for October 2006.
Polling Data
If the 2006 presidential election took place today, and the candidates were these, who would you vote for?
Option 1
Oct. 21 | Aug. 10 | Jul. 22 | |
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) | 30% | 30% | 34% |
Jose Serra (PSDB) | 27% | 27% | 25% |
Anthony Garotinho (PMDB) | 10% | 10% | 9% |
Heloisa Helena | 7% | 6% | 6% |
Cesar Maia (PFL) | 3% | 4% | 4% |
Roberto Freire (PPS) | 2% | 3% | 2% |
Option 2
Oct. 21 | Aug. 10 | Jul. 22 | |
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) | 33% | 32% | 36% |
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) | 16% | 17% | 16% |
Anthony Garotinho (PMDB) | 13% | 13% | 12% |
Heloisa Helena | 7% | 6% | 6% |
Cesar Maia (PFL) | 4% | 5% | 5% |
Roberto Freire (PPS) | 3% | 2% | 2% |
Option 3
Oct. 21 | Aug. 10 | Jul. 22 | |
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) | 32% | 30% | 35% |
Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PDSB) | 16% | 16% | 15% |
Anthony Garotinho (PMDB) | 12% | 12% | 10% |
Heloisa Helena | 7% | 7% | 6% |
Cesar Maia (PFL) | 5% | 6% | 6% |
Roberto Freire (PPS) | 3% | 3% | 2% |
Run-Off Scenarios
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) 41% - 45% Jose Serra (PSDB)
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) 45% - 37% Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) 48% - 31% Anthony Garotinho (PMDB)
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) 48% - 33% Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PDSB)
Source: Datafolha / Folha de Sao Paulo
Methodology: Interviews with 2,537 Brazilian adults, conducted on Oct. 20 and Oct. 21, 2005. Margin of error is 2 per cent.