Polls & Research
Archive Search
Liberals Gain, Tories and NDP Fall in Canada
(Angus Reid Global Scan) - The governing Liberal party is still the most popular political organization in Canada, according to a poll by The Strategic Counsel released by CTV and the Globe and Mail. 38 per cent of respondents would support the Liberals in the next federal election.
The Conservative party is second with 25 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 15 per cent, the Bloc Québécois with 14 per cent and the Green party with eight per cent. Support for the Grits increased by three points since September, while backing for the Tories and the NDP fell by three points and two points respectively.
In Ontario, a province that elects 106 members to the 308-seat House of Commons, the Liberals hold a 20-point lead over the Conservatives. In Quebec, with 75 lawmakers at stake, the Bloc is first with 57 per cent, followed by the Liberals with 25 per cent.
Liberal leader Paul Martin took over as Canada's prime minister in December 2003. In the June 2004 election, the Liberals secured a minority government with 135 seats in the House of Commons. Last year, Martin called a public inquiry into the federal sponsorship program—initiated during the tenure of prime minister Jean Chrétien to promote Canada in Quebec—after auditor-general Sheila Fraser concluded that approximately $75 million U.S. of the program's budget was paid to Liberal-friendly advertising firms for little or no work.
Justice John Gomery was put in charge of the investigation, and is expected to deliver his final report in February 2006. Martin has vowed to hold a federal election "within 30 days of the publication of the commission's final report and recommendations."
On Oct. 18, Bloc Québécois leader Giles Duceppe said not all the blame on the sponsorship scandal should be placed on the former prime minister, saying, "(Chrétien) presided over a cabinet in which the No. 2 man was Paul Martin. (...) You can't know what you don't want to know."
Polling Data
If the federal election was being held tomorrow, do you think you'd be supporting the Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (Quebec only) the Bloc Québécois candidate in your area?
Oct. 13 | Sept. 13 | Aug. 7 | |
Liberal | 38% | 35% | 36% |
Conservative | 25% | 28% | 28% |
New Democratic Party | 15% | 17% | 17% |
Bloc Québécois | 14% | 13% | 11% |
Green | 8% | 7% | 8% |
Regional Distribution (Oct. 6 to Oct. 13)
Ont. | Que. | |
Liberal | 50% | 25% |
Conservative | 30% | 7% |
New Democratic Party | 12% | 6% |
Bloc Québécois | -- | 57% |
Green | 8% | 6% |
Source: The Strategic Counsel / CTV / The Globe and Mail
Methodology: Interviews to 1,000 Canadian adults, conducted from Oct. 6 to Oct. 13, 2005. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.
