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Ontario Conservatives Drop, But Still Lead

August 05, 2005

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - The opposition Progressive Conservative party of John Tory is still the top political organization in Ontario, according to a poll by Environics Research Group. 38 per cent of respondents would vote for the Tories in the next provincial election.

The governing Liberal party of premier Dalton McGuinty is second with 36 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) of Howard Hampton with 22 per cent. Four per cent of respondents would support other parties, and 10 per cent are undecided. Support for the Tories is down three points since March, while the Grits are up one point.

The Liberals won the October 2003 provincial ballot, ending eight years of a Conservative administration. McGuinty inherited an estimated $4.3 billion U.S. budget deficit from the previous administration. The Ontario government claims to have reduced the imbalance to $2.3 billion U.S. The Progressive Conservatives picked Tory as their new leader in September.

On Aug. 3, McGuinty urged residents of Canada's most populous province to conserve energy, saying, "Our responsibility is to ensure there is an affordable, reliable supply of electricity here in Ontario." McGuinty added that his administration "doesn't have the luxury of ruling out" the construction of new nuclear power plants to meet increasing demands.

According to the Crown Corporation Ontario Power Generation (OPG), the profits from the province's nuclear reactors were $2.3 billion U.S. lower than expected from 1999 to 2004. There are 17 nuclear power reactors in Canada, which supply approximately 14 per cent of the country's electricity needs.

Polling Data

If an Ontario provincial election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for

Jul. 2005

Mar. 2005

Progressive Conservatives

38%

41%

Liberals

36%

35%

New Democratic Party

22%

21%

Other parties

4%

5%

Undecided

10%

11%

Source: Environics Research Group
Methodology: Interviews to 576 Ontario voters, conducted from Jun. 20 to Jul. 11, 2004. Margin of error is 4.1 per cent.