Polls & Research

Canada’s Liberals Still Popular in Ontario

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - The governing Liberal party would fare well in Canada's most populous province if a federal election takes place soon, according to a poll by Leger Marketing. 43 per cent of respondents in Ontario would vote for the Liberals.

The Conservative party is second with 31 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party with 19 per cent. Six per cent of respondents would support other political organizations. Ontario voters elect 106 members to the 308-seat House of Commons.

Liberal leader Paul Martin took over as Canada's prime minister in December 2003. In the June 2004 election, the Liberals secured a minority government with 135 seats in the House of Commons. Last year, Martin called a public inquiry into the federal sponsorship program—initiated during the tenure of prime minister Jean Chrétien to promote Canada in Quebec—after auditor-general Sheila Fraser concluded that approximately $75 million U.S. of the program's budget was paid to Liberal-friendly advertising firms for little or no work.

Justice John Gomery was put in charge of the investigation, which is expected to conclude in December 2005. On Apr. 21 in an uncommon televised address, Martin argued for the completion of the inquiry, saying, "Let the facts come out and then the people of Canada will have their say." Only 22 per cent of respondents in Ontario believe a federal election should take place next month.

A sitting administration can only be toppled when it loses a vote that deals with confidence or finances. Martin has proposed holding a parliamentary vote on the budget on May 19, saying, "If the government loses the vote next Thursday, I will seek the dissolution of this Parliament and Canadians will know that (Conservative leader) Stephen Harper and (Bloc Québécois leader) Gilles Duceppe have worked together to force an election less than one year after the last election."

Polling Data

As you may know, there is a possibility that there might be a federal election in June. If a federal election is held in June, which political party would you vote for?

And, thinking about how you feel right now, which of the following three viewpoints best represents when you most prefer to have the next federal election?