October 04, 2004

Abstract: (CPOD) Oct. 4, 2004 - The 2004 United States presidential race is tied, according to a poll by Gallup released by CNN and USA Today. 49 per cent of respondents would vote for Republican incumbents George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, while 49 per cent would support the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards.

(CPOD) Oct. 4, 2004 - The 2004 United States presidential race is tied, according to a poll by Gallup released by CNN and USA Today. 49 per cent of respondents would vote for Republican incumbents George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, while 49 per cent would support the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards.

One per cent of respondents would vote for independent candidate Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo, while one per cent would back another contender. The election is scheduled for Nov. 2.

Support for the Republicans dropped by three per cent since late September, while backing for the Democrats increased by five per cent. In mid-September, the Bush/Cheney ticket held a 14 per cent lead over the Kerry/Edwards pairing.

On Sept. 30, Bush and Kerry faced-off in the first of three presidential debates. Bush defended his decision to go to war in Iraq, and said Kerry's "core convictions keep changing because of politics in America." The Democratic nominee said the president made a "colossal error" in launching military action without holding "the kind of statesman-like summits that pull people together and get them to invest in those states."

Tomorrow, Case Western University in Cleveland, Ohio will host a vice-presidential debate featuring Republican Dick Cheney and Democrat John Edwards.

Polling Data

Suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo (*) as independent candidates.  Who would you vote for?

	Oct. 1-3	Sept. 24-26	Sept. 13-15
Bush / Cheney (R)	49%	52%	54%
Kerry / Edwards (D)	49%	44%	40%
Nader / Camejo (I)	1%	3%	3%
Other	1%	--	2%
No opinion	--	1%	1%

(*) Beginning with Oct. 1-3 poll, Nader/Camejo support is based only on residents from states where Nader was on the presidential ballot at the time the poll was released. In states where Nader was not on the ballot at the time of release, Nader voters' choice for president if Nader is not on the ballot was substituted for their Nader vote.

Source: Gallup / CNN / USA Today
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 772 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 1 to Oct. 3, 2004. Margin of error is 4 per cent.

Other poll highlights: Bush/Cheney lead among registered voters. Bush approval rating at 50 per cent, a four per cent drop since late September. Bush regarded as better candidate to deal with the situation in Iraq and terrorism; Kerry better for the economy. Bush seen as strong and decisive, honest and trustworthy, shares voter's values, better commander in chief; Kerry more caring, expresses himself more clearly, intelligent. 48 per cent say Iraq war a mistake. 49 per cent say Bush has a plan for Iraq; 41 per cent think Kerry does. 42 per cent say Saddam Hussein was involved in 9/11. 50 per cent see Iraq as part of the war on terrorism. 57 per cent say Kerry won Sept. 30 debate.

Complete Poll (PDF)

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