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Yanukovych Could Win First Round in Ukraine
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Viktor Yanukovych has enough support to win the first stage of Ukraine’s next presidential election, according to a poll by Research & Branding Group. 33.3 per cent of respondents would vote for the former prime minister in this month’s ballot.
Current prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko is a distant second with 16.6 per cent, followed by former economy minister Serhiy Tyhypko with 7.4 per cent, and former foreign affairs minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk with 6.7 per cent. Support is lower for Volodymyr Lytvyn of the Lytvyn Bloc, current president Viktor Yushchenko, and Petro Symonenko of the Communist Party (KPU).
A series of public demonstrations took place in Kiev after the November 2004 presidential run-off. The Ukrainian Supreme Court eventually invalidated the results of the second round, and ordered a special re-vote. Opposition candidate Yushchenko—whose supporters wore orange-coloured clothing at events and rallies—received 51.99 per cent of all cast ballots, defeating Yanukovych.
In 2006, the PR secured 186 seats in the Supreme Council. Yanukovych eventually became prime minister in a coalition government with the Socialist Party (SPU) and the KPU. After a long political stalemate and disagreements between the president and prime minister, a new legislative ballot took place in September 2007.
Final election results released in October gave the "orange forces"—including the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and Yushchenko’s People’s Union-Our Ukraine (NS-NU)—228 seats, while Yanukovych and his allies took control of 202 seats. In December, Tymoshenko was ratified as prime minister, with the support of 225 lawmakers.
In September 2008, Ukraine’s governing coalition split in great part due to disagreements over a Georgia-Russia conflict. In the days following an incursion by Russian forces into South Ossetia, a Georgian breakaway province, Yushchenko asked the government to fiercely condemn Russia’s actions in Georgia, but Tymoshenko refused to take a strong stance against Russia. Yushchenko left the coalition as a result. A new parliamentary election was scheduled for December 2008, but was later postponed indefinitely on account of the global economic crisis.
On Dec. 29, Yanukovych offered his views on the movement that overturned his election in 2004 amidst allegations of fraud, saying, "So what did this Orange Revolution give us? Freedom of speech? That’s very good. But what price did the Ukrainian people pay for this? For the development of this democratic principle in our country, the price was too great."
The presidential election is scheduled for Jan. 17. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round, a run-off between the top two vote-getters will be held in February.
Polling Data
Which of these candidates would you vote for in the presidential election?
|
Viktor Yanukovych |
33.3% |
|
Yulia Tymoshenko |
16.6% |
|
Serhiy Tyhypko |
7.4% |
|
Arseniy Yatsenyuk |
6.7% |
|
Volodymyr Lytvyn |
4.1% |
|
Viktor Yushchenko |
3.8% |
|
Petro Symonenko |
3.4% |
Source: Research & Branding Group
Methodology: Interviews with 3,083 Ukrainian adults, conducted from Dec. 5 to Dec. 13, 2009. Margin of error is 1.8 per cent.
