Polls & Research

Abbas Would Beat Haniyeh in Palestinian Ballot

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas would defeat Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the next election, according to a poll by Arab World for Research & Development (AWRAD). 38.7 per cent of respondents would support Abbas of the Fatah movement in the next ballot.

Haniyeh is a distant second with 17.7 per cent. A third of respondents remain undecided.

A different Hamas leader would fare no better against the Fatah candidate. Abbas holds a 23-point lead in a contest against Khaled Mashaal.

Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot in the Palestinian Territories with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

In February 2007, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas. In June, amid a wave of violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza. Abbas issued a decree to form a 12-member emergency government based in the West Bank and expelled Hamas from the administration. Fatah member Salam Fayyad was appointed as prime minister by Abbas.

Abbas recently extended his tenure—which was supposed to end in January 2009—until 2010. The extension is part of an Egypt-sponsored plan to foster reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah.

Both factions agreed to hold joint presidential and parliamentary elections in January 2010. In May, Abbas swore in a new government that does not include members of Hamas. Fayyad remained in his post as prime minister.

Fatah and Hamas reconciliation talks sponsored by the government of Egypt are currently on hold. Fatah accepted a proposal for reconciliation last month, which Hamas officials said needed amendment.

On Nov. 12, Palestinian election officials recommended suspending the January 2010 elections for the time being, saying that an election would only deepen the divide between Gaza and the West Bank. Hanna Nasser, chairman of the Palestinian election commission, explained the situation, saying, "We planned to go to Gaza to figure out how we can conduct elections there. In the meantime, we received an answer from Hamas that we are not welcome in Gaza. It is clear now that we cannot hold an election in Gaza."

Polling Data

If presidential elections took place today, and only Ismail Haniyeh and Mahmoud Abbas ran, who will you vote for?

Mahmoud Abbas	38.4%
Ismail Haniyeh	17.7%
Not sure	10.7%
Don’t know	33.2%

If presidential elections took place today, and only Khaled Mashaal and Mahmoud Abbas ran, who will you vote for?

Mahmoud Abbas	38.7%
Khaled Mashaal	15.7%
Not sure	10.3%
Don’t know	35.3%

Source: Arab World for Research & Development (AWRAD)
Methodology: Interviews with 1,000 Palestinian adults in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, conducted on Nov. 7 and Nov. 8, 2009. Margin of error is 3 per cent.