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Chileans May See Tight Election After All
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - This year’s presidential election in Chile may not be as safe for the opposition candidate as thought until now, according to a poll by CEP. 35 per cent of respondents would vote for Sebastián Piñera of the opposition centre-right Alliance for Chile (AC) in the December ballot, up one point since June.
Former president Eduardo Frei of the centre-left Agreement of Parties for Democracy (CPD) is a close second with 30 per cent, followed by independent, left-wing candidate Marco Enríquez-Ominami with 16 per cent. Support is much lower for left-wing candidate Jorge Arrate, former Senate president Adolfo Zaldívar, and independent, left-wing candidate Alejandro Navarro.
In a prospective run-off scenario, Piñera holds a three-point lead over Frei.
The CPD’s Michelle Bachelet—a former defence minister—was elected in a January 2006 run-off with 53.49 per cent of all cast ballots. Piñera was second with 46.51 per cent.
The CPD—which includes the Socialist Party (PS), the Christian-Democratic Party of Chile (PCD), the Party for Democracy (PD) and the Radical Social-Democratic Party (PRSD)—has not lost a single presidential election in Chile since the return of democracy after the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet in March 1990. The centre-right APC encompasses Piñera’s National Renewal (RN) and the Independent Democratic Union (UDI).
In October 2008, Piñera’s RN achieved significant victories in local elections across the country. For the first time, centre-right parties have more elected mayors than centre-left organizations.
Frei served as Chile’s president from March 1994 to March 2000. Enríquez-Ominami recently split from the Socialists to run as an independent. He is an elected deputy in the lower house. His father, the late Miguel Enríquez Espinosa, was the founder and secretary general of the Revolutionary Left Movement (MIR), and was assassinated by the Pinochet regime when Ominami was three months old.
Piñera has built his career on the premise that he represents a new type of conservatism that is no longer tied to the Pinochet era. Piñera’s brother, José, served as Pinochet’s labour minister and was deemed a close advisor.
On Sept. 5, Frei dismissed voting intention polls and expressed confidence in his victory, saying, "We feel that our message is reaching the people, we feel that those who criticize us so much, those who anticipate our defeat so much, we can tell them, we are here again standing on our feet and we will win the election in December."
Bachelet is ineligible for a consecutive term in office. The first round of Chile’s presidential election is scheduled for Dec. 11.
Polling Data
If the presidential election took place this Sunday, who would you vote for?
|
|
Aug. 2009 |
Jun. 2009 |
|
Sebastián Piñera |
35% |
34% |
|
Eduardo Frei |
30% |
30% |
|
Marco Enríquez-Ominami |
16% |
14% |
|
Alejandro Navarro |
1% |
1% |
|
Adolfo Zaldívar |
1% |
1% |
|
Jorge Arrate |
1% |
1% |
|
Would not vote |
9% |
6% |
|
Not sure |
7% |
13% |
Suppose these two candidates reach the second round of the presidential election. If this were the case, who would you vote for?
|
|
Aug. 2009 |
Jun. 2009 |
|
Sebastián Piñera |
42% |
41% |
|
Eduardo Frei |
39% |
39% |
|
Not sure / Would not vote |
19% |
20% |
Source: Centro de Estudios Públicos (CEP)
Methodology: Interviews with 1,505 Chilean adults, conducted from Jul. 30 to Aug. 20, 2009. Margin of error is 3 per cent.