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Piñera Barely Clinging to Lead in Chile
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - What once seemed like a certain victory for Chilean presidential candidate Sebastián Piñera is now proving to be a tight race, according to a poll by Centro de Estudios Públicos (CEP). 34 per cent of respondents would vote for Piñera of the Alliance for Chile (APC) in this year’s election, down seven points since December.
Former president Eduardo Frei Ruiz Tagle is second with 30 per cent, followed by independent candidate Marco Enríquez-Ominami—a former Socialist Party (PS) member—with 14 per cent. Support is lower for senator Alejandro Navarro of the Broad Social Movement (MAS), left-wing candidate Jorge Arrate, and independent lawmaker and former Senate president Adolfo Zaldívar.
In a run-off scenario, the two contenders are virtually tied, with Piñera at 41 per cent and Frei with 39 per cent. 20 per cent of respondents remain undecided.
Frei belongs to the governing centre-left alliance known as the Agreement of Parties for Democracy (CPD). Enríquez-Ominami recently split from the Socialists to run as an independent.
The CPD’s Michelle Bachelet—a former defence minister—was elected in a January 2006 run-off with 53.49 per cent of all cast ballots. Piñera was second with 46.51 per cent.
The CPD—which includes the PS, the Christian-Democratic Party of Chile (PCD), the Party for Democracy (PD) and the Radical Social-Democratic Party (PRSD)—has not lost a single presidential election in Chile since the return of democracy after the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet in March 1990. The centre-right APC encompasses Piñera’s National Renewal (RN) and the Independent Democratic Union (UDI).
In October 2008, Piñera’s RN achieved significant victories in local elections across the country. For the first time, centre-right parties have more elected mayors than centre-left organizations.
Frei served as Chile’s president from March 1994 to March 2000. Enríquez-Ominami is an elected deputy in the lower house. His father, the late Miguel Enríquez Espinosa, was the founder and secretary general of the Revolutionary Left Movement (MIR), and was assassinated by the Pinochet regime when Ominami was three months old.
On Jun. 18, Piñera discussed the latest poll results, saying, "I have always thought that the race is still on and that there’s everything to play for."
Bachelet is ineligible for a consecutive term in office. The first round of Chile’s presidential election is scheduled for Dec. 11.
Polling Data
If the presidential election took place this Sunday, who would you vote for?
|
|
Jun. 2009 |
Dec. 2008 |
|
Sebastián Piñera |
34% |
41% |
|
Eduardo Frei |
30% |
31% |
|
Marco Enríquez-Ominami |
14% |
n.a. |
|
Alejandro Navarro |
1% |
4% |
|
Adolfo Zaldívar |
1% |
3% |
|
Jorge Arrate |
1% |
n.a. |
|
Would not vote |
6% |
12% |
|
Not sure |
13% |
10% |
Suppose these two candidates reach the second round of the presidential election. If this were the case, who would you vote for?
|
Sebastián Piñera |
41% |
|
Eduardo Frei |
39% |
|
Not sure / Would not vote |
20% |
Source: Centro de Estudios Públicos (CEP)
Methodology: Interviews with 1,505 Chilean adults, conducted from May 14 to Jun. 3, 2009. Margin of error is 3 per cent.