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National Still Surpasses 50% in New Zealand

June 24, 2009

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The National party is holding on to a substantial lead in New Zealand, according to a poll by Roy Morgan International. 52 per cent of respondents would support the governing party in the next election.

The opposition Labour party is second with 33 per cent, followed by the Greens with 7.5 per cent. Support is lower for the Maori Party, ACT, New Zealand First, the Progressives, and United Future.

New Zealanders renewed the House of Representatives in November 2008. Final results gave the conservative National party 45.50 per cent of the vote and 59 seats in the 122-member legislature. The Labour party garnered 33.77 per cent of the vote and 43 mandates. The remaining seats went to other parties and independents.

Also in November 2008, National leader John Key formed a government with the support of ACT, United Future and the Maori Party. Helen Clark announced her resignation as Labour leader, and was supplanted by former trade and defence minister Phil Goff. In April 2009, the Greens and National signed a memorandum of understanding, under which both parties established a "good faith working relationship" with no prerequisite policy commitments.

On Jun. 17, Key revealed the details of the Warm Up New Zealand program—which provides government grants towards the cost of insulation and clean heaters—declaring, "All main trading banks (...) have agreed to waive their fees for top-up loans homeowners get as part of insulation retrofits. Half a million New Zealanders will benefit from the scheme, and there has already been a great response."

Polling Data

If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?

 

Jun. 14

May 31

May 17

National

52%

52%

52%

Labour

33%

31%

31.5%

Greens

7.5%

8.5%

9.5%

Maori Party

2.5%

3%

2.5%

ACT

2.5%

2%

2%

New Zealand First

1%

1.5%

1%

Progressives

0.5%

0.5%

0.5%

United Future

0.5%

0.5%

0.5%

Source: Roy Morgan International
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 868 New Zealand voters, conducted from Jun. 1 to Jun. 14, 2009. No margin of error was provided.