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Likud Stays Ahead of Kadima in Israel
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The rightist Likud party is still first in Israel’s legislative race, according to a poll by Teleseker published in Maariv. A prospective tally of seats shows that Likud would secure 34 seats in the Knesset in this month’s election, followed by the governing Kadima party with 23 mandates.
The Labour party is third with 17 seats, followed by Israel Our Home with 16, and the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) with 10. Support is lower for Vitality-Together, United Torah Judaism, Jewish Home, and National Union. The Arab parties would secure eight seats.
In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by Ehud Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, Shas and Gil joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the Olmert-led government.
In May 2008, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. In July, Olmert announced that he would not participate in an extraordinary internal ballot for Kadima’s leadership. In September, Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni defeated transportation minister Shaul Mofaz in a close race to become Kadima’s new leader.
Livni was supposed to take over as Israel’s prime minister, but was unable to assemble a government. A snap election will take place on Feb. 10.
Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu served as prime minister from June 1996 to July 1999, and resigned from Sharon’s cabinet—where he held the finance portfolio—after opposing the "Disengagement Plan." Labour leader Ehud Barak—the current defence minister—headed the Israeli government from July 1999 to March 2001.
On Jan. 28, Livni urged supporters of minor parties to back Kadima, saying, "It’s between [Netanyahu] and me. We’re within touching distance. (...) Today there is no such thing as separate ballots: Likud and Shas are one. Environment, pensioners are important things, [but] every vote that is not for Kadima is a vote for Bibi Netanyahu."
Polling Data
Prospective results of a Knesset election
(Results presented in seats)
|
Jan. 29 |
Jan. 22 |
Jan. 15 |
|
|
Likud (Consolidation) |
28 |
28 |
28 |
|
Kadima (Forward) |
23 |
24 |
26 |
|
Labour |
17 |
16 |
17 |
|
Israel Our Home (Yisrael Beiteinu) |
16 |
16 |
14 |
|
International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) |
10 |
9 |
9 |
|
Vitality-Together (Meretz-Yachad) |
6 |
6 |
5 |
|
Yahadut Hatorah (United Torah Judaism) |
5 |
6 |
5 |
|
Jewish Home (Habayit Hayehudi) |
4 |
4 |
3 |
|
National Union (HaIhud HaLeumi) |
3 |
2 |
3 |
|
Arab parties |
8 |
9 |
10 |
Source: Teleseker / Maariv
Methodology: Interviews with 600 Israeli adults, conducted on Jan. 29, 2009. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.