Polls & Research

Some Americans Foresee Economic Rebound

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Two-in-five adults in the United States believe the domestic economy will improve over the next 12 months, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 39 per cent of respondents think the U.S. economy will be stronger a year from today.

In addition, 62 per cent of respondents expect the U.S. economy to be stronger five years from today.

Since 2007, defaults on so-called subprime mortgages—credit given to high-risk borrowers—in the United States have caused volatility in domestic and global financial markets and raised concerns that the U.S. economy could fall into a recession. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The crisis has affected the global financial and credit systems.

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2008, Democratic nominee Obama secured a majority of electoral votes, defeating Republican candidate McCain. Obama will become the first African American president in U.S. history when he takes over from George W. Bush—who served two four-year terms—on Jan. 20.

The U.S. unemployment rate stood at 7.2 per cent in December 2008, up from 4.9 per cent in January and the highest level in 16 years.

On Jan. 9, Obama called on federal lawmakers to pass his proposed economic recovery program—estimated at $800 billion U.S.—saying, "I do not believe that it is too late to change course, but it will be if we do not take dramatic action as soon as possible. If nothing is done, this recession could linger for years. (...) For every day we wait or point our fingers or drag our feet, more Americans will lose their jobs. More families will lose their savings."

Polling Data

A year from today, will the U.S. economy be stronger than it is now, or weaker?

Stronger	39%
Weaker	31%
About the same	15%
Not sure	15%

What about five years from today? Will the U.S. economy be stronger than it is now, or weaker?

Stronger	62%
Weaker	14%
About the same	9%
Not sure	15%

Source: Rasmussen Reports
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 American adults, conducted on Jan. 4 and Jan. 5, 2009. Margin of error is 3 per cent.