Polls & Research

Bolivians Ready to Ratify New Constitution

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The majority of people in Bolivia will vote in favour of a new body of law for the country, according to a poll by OGP. 65 per cent of respondents would ratify the proposed constitution in this month’s referendum, while 16 per cent would vote against it.

Evo Morales—an indigenous leader and former coca-leaf farmer—won the December 2005 presidential election as the candidate for the Movement to Socialism (MAS), with 53.7 per cent of the vote. He officially took over as Bolivia’s head of state in January 2006.

Morales’s tenure has been focused on "re-founding" Bolivia through a new constitution. In November 2007, a draft constitution was approved with the support of all pro-government National Constituent Assembly members. Opposition parties boycotted the vote. The proposed draft included articles that allow for consecutive presidential re-election, the creation of 36 autonomous indigenous communities, and tighter government controls over private media outlets.

Last year, the departments of Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando and Tarija—all led by politicians opposed to Morales—held votes in an effort to increase their autonomy within Bolivia, directly defying articles in the new constitution. In response to the non-binding referendums, Morales enacted a law that scheduled a recall vote on himself, Bolivian vice-president Álvaro García Linera, and the country’s nine governors or "departmental prefects" in August. The president and vice-president were ratified by more than 60 per cent of the participating voters.

On Oct. 21, the discussions between the president and the departmental prefects finally ended with a revamped version of the constitution and a decision to hold a referendum to ratify the new body of law on Jan. 25, 2009. The new draft includes a bill of rights and an entire chapter dedicated to Bolivia’s 36 indigenous nations. It also puts the economy in the hands of the state, limits landholdings, redistributes revenues from gas fields in the eastern lowlands to the country’s poorer areas, and includes a compromise that allows the current president to seek only one additional five-year term.

Bolivia’s Catholic Church has clashed with Morales over the past few months, with prominent Catholic figures from the eastern provinces openly criticizing the president. In March 2008, a document released by the Bolivian Episcopal Conference condemned the proposed constitution, stating, "Its excessive concentration of power in the executive breaks the necessary balance and independence between the branches of government."

Earlier this month, Morales fired back, saying, "The Catholic Church has become a syndicate of opposition to the government. (…) The Catholic Church and the media are the only opposition I have left."

Polling Data

How would you vote in the constitutional referendum?

In favour	65%
Against	16%
Not sure	19%

Source: Observatorio de Gestión Pública (OGP)
Methodology: Interviews with 1,000 Bolivian adults, conducted from Dec. 11 to Dec. 23, 2008. No margin of error was provided.