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Governing Kadima Ties Likud in Israel
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party has lost momentum as a general ballot in Israel draws near, according to a poll by Teleseker published in Maariv. A prospective tally of seats shows the rightist party would get 28 seats in the Knesset in next month’s election, down seven since December.
The ruling Kadima party would also get 28 seats—up seven in three weeks. Labour is third with 16 mandates, followed by Israel Our Home with 12 seats, and the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) with 11 mandates.
In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by Ehud Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, Shas and the Retired People’s Party (Gil) joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the Olmert-led government.
In May, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. In July, Olmert announced that he would not participate in an extraordinary internal ballot for Kadima’s leadership. In September, Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni defeated transportation minister Shaul Mofaz in a close race to become Kadima’s new leader.
Livni was supposed to take over as Israel’s prime minister, but was unable to assemble a government. A snap election will take place on Feb. 10.
The Islamic Jihad organization launched Qassam rockets into Israel from Gaza almost daily since Hamas took control of the territory in June 2007. Israel holds Hamas responsible for the attacks for allowing Islamic Jihad and other groups to act against Israel. On Dec. 21, a six-month "calm agreement" between Israel and Hamas expired. The launching of rockets into southern Israel resumed.
On Dec. 27, Israel launched a series of aerial attacks against what it deems "Hamas targets" in the Gaza Strip, including the Al Aqsa television station and the Islamic University of Gaza. On Jan. 3, Israeli ground troops entered Gaza. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), at least 640 people have died during the military operation and close to 3,000 have been wounded. Women and children account for close to one third of the fatalities, and 45 per cent of the injuries.
On Jan. 5, Livni justified the military actions in Gaza before European Union (EU) officials, saying that Israel seeks to "change the equation" that favours Hamas, and adding that the operation will be "a long battle against terror."
Polling Data
Prospective results of a Knesset election
(Results presented in seats)
|
|
Jan. 1 |
Dec. 10 |
Oct. 26 |
|
Likud (Consolidation) |
28 |
35 |
29 |
|
Kadima (Forward) |
28 |
21 |
31 |
|
Labour |
16 |
15 |
11 |
|
Israel Our Home (Yisrael Beiteinu) |
12 |
11 |
11 |
|
International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) |
11 |
12 |
8 |
|
Vitality-Together (Meretz-Yachad) |
6 |
6 |
5 |
|
Yahadut Hatorah (United Torah Judaism) |
5 |
7 |
4 |
|
Jewish Home (National Union and NRP) |
4 |
4 |
7 |
|
Green Party (Yerukim) |
-- |
-- |
3 |
|
Arab parties |
10 |
10 |
11 |
Source: Teleseker / Maariv
Methodology: Interviews with 800 Israeli adults, conducted on Jan. 1, 2009. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.