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Serra Could Replace President Lula in Brazil

December 20, 2008

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Jose Serra could become Brazil’s next president, according to a poll by Datafolha published in Folha de Sao Paulo. 41 per cent of respondents would vote for the Sao Paulo governor of the Brazilian Party of Social Democracy (PSDB) in the 2010 presidential election, up three points since March.

National integration minister Ciro Gomes of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) is second with 15 per cent, followed by Heloisa Helena of the Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL) with 14 per cent, and current government chief of staff Dilma Rousseff of the Worker’s Party (PT) with eight per cent.

In a different scenario where Serra is not a contender, Gomes would be first with 25 per cent, followed by Helena with 19 per cent, Minas Gerais governor Aecio Neves of the PSDB with 17 per cent, and Rouseff with nine per cent.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva—a member of the PT—won the October 2002 presidential election with 61 per cent of the vote in a run-off against Serra. In October 2006, he earned a new four-year term, defeating PSDB candidate Geraldo Alckmin with 60.8 per cent of the vote in the second round. Lula, one of the most popular presidents in Brazilian history, is ineligible for a third consecutive term in office.

Two years after the 1973 oil crisis, the Brazilian government—controlled at the time by a military junta—ordered the implementation of a nationwide program to gradually replace fossil fuels in favour of ethanol. Brazil’s ethanol is derived from sugar cane.

Brazil is currently a world leader in the production of ethanol. Sao Paulo is the main producer of this bio-fuel in Brazil. During a global congress on the topic last month, Serra announced the construction of a research and development centre for ethanol worth $44 million U.S. and declared: "This technology doesn’t only matter to Brazil. It matters to the entire planet."

Polling Data

Which candidate would you vote for in the 2010 presidential election?

Option 1

 

Nov. 2008

Mar. 2008

Jose Serra (PSDB)

41%

38%

Ciro Gomes (PSB)

15%

20%

Heloisa Helena (PSOL)

14%

14%

Dilma Rousseff (PT)

8%

3%

Blank vote / None of these

12%

16%

Not sure

9%

9%

Option 2

 

Nov. 2008

Mar. 2008

Ciro Gomes (PSB)

25%

31%

Heloisa Helena (PSOL)

19%

19%

Aecio Neves (PSDB)

17%

17%

Dilma Rousseff (PT)

9%

9%

Blank vote / None of these

17%

17%

Not sure

12%

12%

Source: Datafolha / Folha de Sao Paulo
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 3,486 Brazilian adults, conducted from Nov. 25 to Nov. 28, 2008. Margin of error is 2 per cent.