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U.S. 2008: Obama 50.9%, McCain 43.7%
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama heads to today’s United States presidential election as the favourite, according to a review of the latest 16 national voting intention surveys. 50.9 per cent of voters would cast a ballot for the Illinois senator, while 43.7 per cent would support Arizona senator and Republican nominee John McCain.
Obama is ahead of McCain in all of the surveys, and reaches the 50 per cent mark in 14 of them. More than five per cent of respondents remain undecided, or would vote for other candidates. Since the last ARGM Poll Average, Obama has gained one point, while McCain has remained stable.
Yesterday, the two candidates closed their campaigns. In Florida, Obama criticized his rival, saying, "When it comes to the economy, when it comes to the central issue of this election, the plain truth is that John McCain has stood with George Bush every step of the way."
Also in Florida, McCain predicted a win, declaring, "The pundits have written us off just like they’ve done before and my opponent is measuring the drapes in the White House. The pundits may not know it and the Democrats may not know it, but ‘the Mac’ is back. We’re going to win this election."
In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.
Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.
Polling Data
National Vote - 2008 U.S. Presidential Election
Contenders: John McCain (R), Barack Obama (D)
|
McCain |
Obama |
Other / Not sure |
|
|
ARGM Poll Average |
43.7% |
50.9% |
5.4% |
|
(16) Rasmussen Reports |
46% |
51% |
3% |
|
(15) Gallup |
42% |
53% |
5% |
|
(14) Zogby International |
44% |
51% |
5% |
|
(13) TechnoMetrica |
43% |
48% |
9% |
|
(12) Battleground |
44% |
50% |
6% |
|
(11) Diageo / Hotline |
45% |
50% |
5% |
|
(10) Research 2000 |
45% |
51% |
4% |
|
(9) TNS / ABC News / WP |
44% |
53% |
3% |
|
(8) Marist College |
44% |
53% |
3% |
|
(7) Opinion Dynamics / Fox News |
43% |
50% |
7% |
|
(6) Hart/Newhouse / WSJ / NBC |
43% |
51% |
6% |
|
(5) CBS News |
42% |
51% |
7% |
|
(4) GQRR / Democracy Corps |
44% |
51% |
5% |
|
(3) Ipsos / McClatchy |
42% |
50% |
8% |
|
(2) Opinion Research Corp. |
46% |
53% |
1% |
|
(1) Pew Center |
42% |
49% |
9% |
(16) Rasmussen Reports - Telephone interviews with 3,000 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 31 to Nov. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 2 per cent.
(15) Gallup - Telephone interviews with 2,472 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 31 to Nov. 31 2008. Margin of error is 2 per cent
(14) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN - Telephone interviews with 1,200 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 31 to Nov. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 2.8 per cent.
(13) TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence / Investor’s Business Daily - Telephone interviews with 1,000 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(12) Battleground / Lake Research Partners / The Tarrance Group - Telephone interviews with 1,000 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 29, Oct. 30 and Nov. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(11) Diageo / Hotline - Telephone interviews with 800 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 31 to Nov. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.
(10) Research 2000 - Telephone interviews with 1,100 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 31 to Nov. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(9) TNS / ABC News / Washington Post - Telephone interviews with 1,300 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.
(8) Marist College - Telephone interviews with 635 likely American voters, conducted on Nov. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(7) Opinion Dynamics / Fox News - Telephone interviews with 971 likely American voters, conducted on Nov. 1 and Nov. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(6) Hart/Newhouse / Wall Street Journal / NBC News - Telephone interviews with 1,011 likely American voters, conducted on Nov. 1 and Nov. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.
(5) CBS News - Telephone interviews with 1,051 American adults, conducted from Oct. 31 to Nov. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(4) Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research / Democracy Corps - Telephone interviews with 1,000 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(3) Ipsos / McClatchy Newspapers - Telephone interviews with 760 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 3.6 per cent.
(2) Opinion Research Corporation / CNN - Telephone interviews with 714 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 1, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.
(1) Pew Research Center for the People & the Press - Telephone interviews with 2,587 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 29 to Nov. 1, 2008. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.