(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - New Zealand’s major opposition party is likely to win the next legislative election, according to a poll by Colmar Brunton released by One News. 52 per cent of respondents would vote for the conservative National party in next month’s election to the House of Representatives, up one point since August.

The governing Labour is second with 33 per cent—down four points in two months—followed by the Greens with seven per cent, the Maori Party with three per cent, New Zealand First and ACT both with two per cent, and United Future with one per cent.

Labour leader Helen Clark has acted as New Zealand’s prime minister since December 1999. In November 2006, Don Brash—who had served as National’s leader since October 2003—announced his resignation and was substituted by finance spokesman John Key.

In the September 2005 ballot, Labour elected 50 lawmakers to the 121-seat House of Representatives, and assembled a coalition government with the Progressives. United Future and New Zealand First agreed to support the administration in confidence and supply votes for three years. National finished second, with 48 legislators.

On Oct. 9, Key responded to Clark’s criticism of his tax-cuts proposals by saying that the prime minister’s economic policies are insufficient in a time of crisis, declaring, "Labour’s lack of concern about the looming decade of deficits is reckless. The only way out is to grow. National has presented a clear five-point plan to do that, but Helen Clark has offered no response at all. She is behaving like a possum in the headlights."

The next legislative election will take place on Nov. 8.

Polling Data

Thinking about the Party Vote, which is for a political party, which political party would you vote for?

Source: Colmar Brunton / One News
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 New Zealand voters, conducted in October 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

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