(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The governing Labour party will likely lose its re-election bid in next month’s legislative ballot, according to a poll by TNS released by TV3. 36 per cent of respondents would vote for Labour in the next election to the House of Representatives, while 49 per cent would support the opposition National party.

The Greens are third with five per cent, followed by New Zealand First with three per cent, and the Maori Party with two per cent.

Labour leader Helen Clark has acted as New Zealand’s prime minister since December 1999. In November 2006, Don Brash—who had served as National’s leader since October 2003—announced his resignation and was substituted by finance spokesman John Key.

In the September 2005 ballot, Labour elected 50 lawmakers to the 121-seat House of Representatives, and assembled a coalition government with the Progressives. United Future and New Zealand First agreed to support the administration in confidence and supply votes for three years. National finished second, with 48 legislators.

On Sept. 26, official figures showed New Zealand’s economy fell into recession for the first half of this year. Finance minister Michael Cullen commented on the numbers, saying, "We started this year having to adjust to very real challenges arising from the combination of slowing global growth, rising international oil and food prices and rising credit costs in the wake of the credit crunch in the United States."

The next legislative election will take place on Nov. 8.

Polling Data

If a general election was held yesterday under MMP, which political party would you have voted for with your party vote? That is, for the political party you most want to be represented in parliament.

Source: TNS / TV3
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 New Zealand voters, conducted from Sept. 18 to Sept. 24, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

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