(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Hungary’s most prominent opposition party is likely to form the next government, according to a poll by Tarki. 61 per cent of respondents—all decided voters—would support the Hungarian Citizens Party (Fidesz) in the next legislative election.

The governing Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) is second with 24 per cent, followed by the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) with six per cent, the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ) with three per cent.

Hungarian voters renewed their National Assembly in April 2006. The MSZP and the SZDSZ secured 210 of the legislative branch’s 386 seats, securing a full term for Socialist prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsany. Fidesz, led by Viktor Orban, elected 164 lawmakers. In June 2006, Gyurcsany introduced a fiscal "austerity package" of state subsidy reductions and tax increases, aimed at lowering the country’s fiscal deficit.

In September 2006, Gyurcsany was criticized after Hungary’s state radio aired portions of an audiotape—which had been recorded in May—in which he told members of the MSZP that his administration "lied throughout the past one and a half or two years" about the state of the country’s economy in order to win re-election. The prime minister’s words sparked a two-week riot that threatened to end his government.

Since mid-2007, Fidesz leader Orban has repeatedly called for an early legislative election. In April 2008, the SZDSZ abandoned the governing coalition citing "irreconcilable differences" with the Socialists on economic policies.

On Sept. 24, Gillian Edgeworth, an analyst at Deutsche Bank in London, warned about the current economic situation, saying, "GDP growth in Hungary is unlikely to reach three per cent and in a pessimistic scenario may not reach two per cent. Activity in Euroland is clearly slowing and there is evidence that this is already taking its toll on industry performance in Hungary."

Polling Data

Which party would you vote for in the next legislative election? (Decided Voters)

Source: Tarki
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 Hungarian voters, conducted from Sept. 4 to Sept. 12, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

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