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Conservatives Ahead, NDP Gaining in Canada

September 12, 2008

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The governing Conservative party has extended its lead in Canada, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 38 per cent of respondents would support the Tories in next month’s election to the House of Commons, up two points since late August.

The Liberal party is second with 24 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 21 per cent, the Bloc Québécois with nine per cent, and the Green party with seven per cent. Support for the Grits fell by four points, while backing for the NDP increased by three points.

Canadians renewed the House of Commons in January 2006. The Conservative party—led by Stephen Harper—received 36.3 per cent of the vote, and secured 124 seats in the 308-member lower house. Harper formed a minority administration after more than 12 years of government by the Liberal party. In December 2006, former environment minister Stéphane Dion became the new leader of the Liberals.

On Sept. 8, Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe criticized Harper, saying, "This morning, we heard for the first time in history, a prime minister refuse to say he wants a majority. He’s scared of talking about a majority because he knows that the ideology of his party worries people. The Conservatives of Stephen Harper lack respect toward women, toward youth, toward workers, toward the elderly, toward artists."

The next federal election in Canada is scheduled for Oct. 14.

Polling Data

If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency?

 

Sept. 9

Aug. 2008

Jul. 2008

Jun. 2008

Conservative

38%

36%

35%

33%

Liberal

24%

28%

30%

30%

New Democratic Party

21%

18%

17%

19%

Bloc Québécois

9%

9%

9%

9%

Green

7%

8%

8%

7%

Other

1%

1%

1%

1%

Source: Angus Reid Strategies
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,007 Canadian adults, conducted on Sept. 8 and Sept. 9, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

 

Complete Poll (PDF)