(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Many people in Ukraine think their country could face a conflict with Russia in the near future, according to a poll by the Institute for Strategic Studies. 48.5 per cent of respondents believe Ukraine could live a situation similar to the one Georgia went through recently, while 40.4 per cent disagree.

According to international regulations, South Ossetia and Abkhazia belong to Georgia—a former Soviet republic. In the early 1990s, both pro-Russian regions became de facto independent but failed to be fully recognized as sovereign nations. Separatist forces operate in both regions. Georgia is currently led by pro-Western politicians and is in talks to enter the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

On Aug. 7, the Georgian government sent troops into South Ossetia in a surprise attack to assert sovereignty over the region. The following day, Russian tanks entered South Ossetia and confronted the Georgian army. The Russian government claimed that it was acting in defence of Russian citizens living in the region. In recent years, Russia has handed Russian passports to the vast majority of South Ossetia residents. Russian troops occupied South Ossetia and other parts of Georgia, and some disturbances were reported in Abkhazia as well.

On Aug. 12, French president Nicolas Sarkozy—whose country currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Union (EU)—brokered a cease fire which included a commitment by Russia to withdraw its forces from Georgian territory.

Russia has now pulled out most of its troops from central and Western Georgia. Russian soldiers are still present in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

On Aug. 25, Russian lawmakers unanimously passed a resolution asking Russian president Dmitry Medvedev to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent nations. The following day, Medvedev signed a decree formally acknowledging the independence of both regions.

It has been widely speculated that Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula—which is home to a large Russian population—might face the same fate of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

On Sept. 3, Ukraine’s governing coalition split in great part due to disagreements over the Georgia-Russia conflict. In the days following the incursion, Ukrainian president Viktor Yushchenko asked the government to fiercely condemn Russia’s actions in Georgia, but Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko refused to take a strong stance against Russia.

The coalition of the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and the People’s Union-Our Ukraine (NS-NU) had been in power since December 2007, with a slim majority in the legislature. Tymoshenko accused the president of "destroying" the governing coalition by pulling out.

Polling Data

Do you think a conflict like the one that took place in Georgia could happen in Ukraine?

Source: Institute for Strategic Studies
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,011 Ukrainian adults, conducted from Aug. 21 to Aug. 26, 2008. Margin of error is 2.2 per cent.

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