(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The governing Kadima party of Israel would fare better in the next election with foreign minister Tzipi Livni as its leader, according to a poll by Teleseker published in Maariv. A prospective tally of seats shows that a Livni-led Kadima would garner 23 seats in the next ballot, second to Likud with 31 mandates.

Labour and Israel Our Home would be third with 12 seats each, followed by the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) with nine mandates, and National Union and the National Religious Party with eight seats.

If transportation minister Shaul Mofaz were to lead Kadima into the next election, Likud would be first with 31 seats, followed by Kadima and Labour with 16 mandates each, and Israel Our Home with 11 seats.

In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by current head of government Ehud Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, Shas and the Retired People’s Party (Gil) joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the government. Olmert’s coalition now has the support of 78 of the Knesset’s 120 members.

In May, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to prime minister Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. Olmert is alleged to have illegally accepted hundreds of thousands of U.S. dollars from Moshe Talansky and other wealthy Jewish-American businessmen, either as illegal campaign contributions or bribes. Neither Olmert nor Talansky have been charged with any crime, but now Olmert is under investigation.

On Jul. 31, Olmert announced that he will not participate in an extraordinary internal ballot for Kadima’s leadership on Sept. 17, which will effectively end his tenure. Whoever wins the leadership vote will form a new government. Livni and Mofaz are the two main contenders for the party’s leadership.

On Sept. 3, during an election rally, Livni described herself a centrist politician, declaring, "It’s easy to be a rightist and criticize everything without offering alternatives. It’s also easy to be a leftist and ignore realities. It’s harder to be a centrist, and the fact that we are centrists is not a coincidence. It’s an ideology. Kadima will not divide the people."

Polling Data

Prospective results of a Knesset election
(Results presented in seats)

Source: Teleseker / Maariv
Methodology: Interviews with 448 Israeli adults, conducted on Aug. 27, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.

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