Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

U.S. 2008: Obama 48.8%, McCain 42.8%

September 06, 2008

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama is still leading Republican John McCain in the United States presidential race, according to a review of six voting intention surveys conducted over the past seven days. 48.8 per cent of voters would support the Illinois senator, while 42.8 per cent would support the Arizona senator.

In one of the recent polls, Obama reached the 50 per cent mark. More than eight per cent of respondents remain undecided, or would vote for other candidates.

All of these surveys were conducted after the Democratic National Convention, which was held from Aug. 25 to Aug. 28 in Denver, Colorado. Obama has gained 1.2 points since the last ARGM Poll Average, while McCain is down by 0.8 points. 

On Aug. 28, Obama accepted his party’s nomination, declaring, "What has also been lost is our sense of common purpose. And that’s what we have to restore. (...) One of the things that we have to change in our politics is the idea that people cannot disagree without challenging each other’s character and patriotism. I love this country, and so do you, and so does John McCain."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

National Vote - 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

Contenders: John McCain (R), Barack Obama (D)

 

McCain

Obama

Other / Not sure

ARGM Poll Average

42.8%

48.8%

8.4%

(6) Democracy Corps

44%

49%

7%

(5) American Research Group

43%

49%

8%

(4) Gallup / USA Today

43%

50%

7%

(3) CBS News

40%

48%

12%

(2) Opinion Research Corp.

48%

49%

3%

(1) Diageo/Hotline

39%

48%

13%

(6) Democracy Corps - Telephone interviews with 1,000 likely American voters, conducted from Sept. 1 to Sept. 3, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.
(5) American Research Group - Telephone interviews with 1,200 likely American voters, conducted from Aug. 30 to Sept. 1, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(4) Gallup / USA Today - Telephone interviews with 1,835 registered American voters, conducted on Aug. 30 and Aug. 31, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(3) CBS News - Telephone interviews with 781 registered American voters, conducted from Aug. 29 to Aug. 31, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(2) Opinion Research Corporation / CNN - Telephone interviews with 927 registered American voters, conducted from Aug. 29 to Aug. 31, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(1) Diageo/Hotline - Telephone interviews with 805 registered American voters, conducted from Aug. 29 to Aug. 31, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.

 

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