Polls & Research

Palestinians Would Vote for Abbas Again

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Most residents of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank would vote for Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas in the next presidential election, according to a poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. 53 per cent of respondents would vote for Abbas, down six points since September 2007.

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is second with 39 per cent, up three points in a year.

Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot in the Palestinian Territories with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

In February 2007, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas. In June, amid a wave of violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza. Abbas issued a decree to form a 12-member emergency government based in the West Bank and expelled Hamas from the administration. Fatah member Salam Fayyad was appointed as prime minister by Abbas.

In November 2007, Abbas and leaders from the United States, Israel and several Arab countries attended an international conference on Middle East affairs in Annapolis, Maryland. The meeting was brokered by U.S. president George W. Bush. On Nov. 27, Abbas and Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert announced they would work towards having a peace treaty signed by the end of 2008, which would include the creation of a Palestinian state.

The Islamic Jihad organization began to launch Qassam rockets into Israel from Gaza almost daily since Hamas took control of the territory. Israel holds Hamas responsible for the attacks for allowing the Islamic Jihad and other groups to act against Israel. In January, Israel completely sealed off its borders with the Gaza Strip and launched military operations in Gaza.

In May, Israeli and Palestinian delegates began to negotiate a ceasefire in Egypt. On Jun. 17, Egypt announced that a "calm agreement" had been reached between Israel and Hamas. The deal took effect on Jun. 19, and entails Gaza’s Hamas rulers halting rocket and mortar fire on Israeli border communities, while Israel is to increase the flow of goods into Gaza. The fragile truce is still in place.

On Sept. 3, Abbas referred to the Egyptian government’s efforts to foster peace between Israelis and Palestinians, declaring, "Egypt is carrying out a very unique mission related to inviting various Palestinian factions for dialogue. (...) [After talks in September], the results of the dialogue would be sent to the Arab League."

Polling Data

If a presidential election were to take place today, and Mahmoud Abbas were nominated by Fatah and Ismail Haniyeh were nominated by Hamas, who would you vote for?

	Aug. 2008	Sept. 2007
Mahmoud Abbas	53%	59%
Ismail Haniyeh	39%	36%
Not sure	8%	5%

Source: Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,270 Palestinian adults in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, conducted from Aug. 28 to Aug. 30, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.