Polls & Research

Avila Narrows Gap in Salvadoran Race

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The race for El Salvador’s top office is becoming tighter, according to a poll by CID-Gallup. 40 per cent of respondents would vote for Mauricio Funes of the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) in next year’s ballot, down one point since May.

Rodrigo Ávila of the governing conservative Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) is second with 30 per cent, up 10 points in three months. Three-in-ten respondents remain undecided.

ARENA’s Antonio Saca, a media businessman, was elected in March 2004, garnering 57.73 per cent of the vote. ARENA candidates have won the last four presidential elections in the Central American country. Saca is ineligible for a consecutive term in office.

In September 2007, Funes became the FMLN’s presidential nominee. In March 2008, Ávila, a former National Police chief, won ARENA’s three-candidate internal nationwide primary.

The FMLN was once an umbrella armed group of left-wing revolutionaries fighting against the Salvadoran establishment. In the early 1990s, the FMLN was disbanded and became a legal political party.

On Aug. 20, Ávila publicly accused Funes of "stealing" components of his platform. His campaign’s vice-president, César Funes (no relation to FMLN candidate Funes) later said that Ávila will not fight Funes for that, adding, "In the end I think that when the competition imitates and copies you, it is the greatest form of flattery."

The next legislative election is scheduled for Jan. 18, 2009, with a presidential ballot following on Mar. 15.

Polling Data

Which of these candidates would you vote for in the next presidential election?

	Aug. 2008	May 2008	Mar. 2008
Mauricio Funes (FMLN)	40%	41%	44%
Rodrigo Ávila (ARENA)	30%	20%	23%
Wil Salgado (PCN)	n.a.	4%	--
Other / Undecided	30%	35%	31%

Source: CID-Gallup
Methodology: Interviews with 1,200 Salvadoran adults, conducted from Aug. 13 to Aug. 17, 2008. Margin of error is 2.8 per cent.