(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Adults in Israel would be more likely to support the governing Kadima if the party were headed by foreign minister Tzipi Livni, according to a poll by Dialog published in Haaretz. A prospective tally of seats shows that Kadima and the opposition Likud party would each get 36 seats in the legislature if Livni were Kadima’s leader.

Labour is third with 13 mandates, followed by Israel Our Home and the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) with 10 seats each, and Yahadut Hatorah with seven mandates.

In a different scenario, with transportation minister Shaul Mofaz as Kadima’s leader, Likud would be first with 30 mandates, followed by Kadima with 22 seats, Labour with 13 mandates, Israel Our Home and the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) with 11 seats each, and Yahadut Hatorah with seven mandates.

In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by current head of government Ehud Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, Shas and the Retired People’s Party (Gil) joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the government. Olmert’s coalition now has the support of 78 of the Knesset’s 120 members.

In May, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to prime minister Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. Olmert is alleged to have illegally accepted hundreds of thousands of U.S. dollars from Moshe Talansky and other wealthy Jewish-American businessmen, either as illegal campaign contributions or bribes. Neither Olmert nor Talansky have been charged with any crime, but now Olmert is under investigation.

On Jul. 31, Olmert announced that he will not participate in an extraordinary internal ballot for Kadima’s leadership in September, which will effectively end his tenure. Whoever wins the leadership vote will form a new government. Livni and Mofaz are the two main contenders for the party’s leadership.

On Aug. 25, Mofaz criticized Livni for supporting the government’s release of 200 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons, saying, "To my sorrow, foreign minister Livni pushed the idea of freeing more terrorists. Freeing terrorists at the same time kidnapped IDF [Israeli Defence Forces] soldier Gilad Shalit is not with us leaves me with a difficult feeling. Making a bad decision is worse than deciding nothing, and we have freed 700 prisoners this year without anything in return."

Polling Data

Prospective results of a Knesset election
(Results presented in seats)

Source: Dialog / Haaretz
Methodology: Interviews with 402 Israeli adults, conducted on Aug. 19, 2008. Margin of error is 5 per cent.

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