(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Ecuador’s proposed new constitution has gathered enough support to be approved in an upcoming referendum, according to a poll by Santiago Pérez Investigaciones y Estudios. 50 per cent of respondents would vote in favour of ratifying the new body of law, up two points since early August.

In contrast, 27 per cent of respondents would vote against the constitution, and 24 per cent would either cast a blank vote or a null vote.

Rafael Correa, a former finance minister, ran for president as an independent leftist under the Alliance Country (AP) banner. In November 2006, Correa defeated Álvaro Noboa of the conservative Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN) in a run-off with 56.69 per cent of the vote. He officially took over as Ecuador’s head of state in January 2007, and vowed to change the country’s Constitution. Correa’s party nominated no candidates to the National Congress.

In April 2007, Ecuadorian citizens participated in a referendum to enact a Constituent Assembly. The president’s proposal was backed by 82 per cent of all voters. In September, Correa’s supporters—running under the Movement Country (MP) banner—secured 80 seats in the 130-member Constituent Assembly, enough to enact changes without seeking compromises with political opponents. In November, Ecuador’s Constituent Assembly officially began its work, and suspended the National Congress.

On Jul. 18, a full constitutional draft was approved by the pro-government majority in the Constituent Assembly. Opposition members had stopped working on the document a week earlier and have said they will officially oppose it even if they cannot influence the final decision. The text includes a clause allowing for one consecutive presidential re-election. Two articles that would have legalized same-sex unions and given the indigenous Quechua tongue the status of official language were pulled out at the last minute.

The Electoral Court of Ecuador has scheduled the referendum for Sept. 28. The proposed constitution can only be ratified if the "Yes" side garners the support of more than 50 per cent of all participating voters.

On Aug. 18, Roberto Gómez, president of the Supreme Court of Justice, warned that a "de facto regime" could be instated in Ecuador if the new constitution is approved. Gómez criticized a provision approved by the Constitutional Assembly that will see a transitional administration take over until a series of new institutions are created and begin to operate three months after the referendum. Gómez declared: "During the transition [period], if there is no Supreme Court, if there is no legislative branch, the only thing you have left is the executive [branch]."

Polling Data

How would you vote in the constitutional referendum?

Source: Santiago Pérez Investigaciones y Estudios
Methodology: Interviews with 1,440 Ecuadorian adults, conducted on Aug. 15 and Aug. 16, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

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