(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama is still the frontrunner in the 2008 United States presidential race, according to a poll by Opinion Research Corporation released by CNN. 51 per cent of respondents would vote for the Illinois senator in this year’s ballot, while 44 per cent would back Arizona senator John McCain.

Support for Obama increased by one point since June, while backing for McCain fell by the same margin.

In a contest incorporating three other candidates, Obama is first with 46 per cent, followed by McCain with 42 per cent, independent candidate Ralph Nader with six per cent, Libertarian nominee Bob Barr with three per cent, and Green Party contender Cynthia McKinney with one per cent.

On Aug. 1, McCain criticized Obama, saying, "If there’s one thing he always delivers it’s a great speech. (...) But I hope you’ll listen carefully, because his ideas are not always as impressive as his rhetoric."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party’s candidate and John McCain were the Republican Party’s candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: Obama, the Democrat, or McCain, the Republican? If unsure: As of today, who do you lean more toward?

Now suppose that the presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Barack Obama as the Democratic Party’s candidate, John McCain as the Republican candidate, Bob Barr as the Libertarian Party candidate, Cynthia McKinney as the Green Party candidate, and Ralph Nader as an independent candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for? If unsure: As of today, who do you lean more toward?

Source: Opinion Research Corporation / CNN
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 914 registered American voters, conducted from Jul. 27 to Jul. 29, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.

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