Polls & Research

Irish Reject Second Vote on Lisbon Treaty

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The vast majority of people in Ireland want to leave the Lisbon Treaty behind, according to a poll by Red C. 71 per cent of respondents oppose holding a new referendum on the proposed common body of law for members of the European Union (EU).

EU heads of state officially signed the European Constitution on Oct. 29, 2004. The project for a continental body of law was practically abandoned in 2005, after voters in France and the Netherlands rejected the proposed document in two plebiscites.

In October 2007, leaders of the 27 EU member nations reached an agreement on the Lisbon Treaty and Charter of Fundamental Rights. The Lisbon Treaty provisions call for the creation of new posts, such as a foreign policy chief, and a High Representative who will answer to EU governments and serve as vice-president of the European Commission. The Charter will become legally binding in all EU member states except Britain, which negotiated an exemption.

The EU leaders would also choose a president of the European Council for a two and a half year renewable term. This will effectively eliminate the current six-month rotating presidency among member nations. The Lisbon Treaty also provides for the creation of a mutual defence clause, in case one of the member states is attacked.

If all countries ratify the treaty—whether through a referendum or a parliamentary vote—it will become effective in January 2009. Ireland, due to its internal regulations, was the only country that had to hold a nationwide vote on the Lisbon Treaty, while other governments can decide whether they want to do the same.

On Jun. 12, 53.4 per cent of Irish voters rejected the adoption of the Lisbon Treaty. Many analysts interpreted the result as the demise of the accord. The Irish government is pondering whether to hold another referendum next year, presenting new benefits for Ireland in the event the Lisbon Treaty is ratified.

On Jul. 28, Luxembourg prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker referred to the potential second referendum, saying, "My sense of reality tells me that the Lisbon Treaty will still not be in force in the middle of 2009. I fear that the Irish people would view another referendum in the spring as a surprise manoeuvre."

Polling Data

Do you support or oppose holding a new referendum on the Lisbon Treaty?

Support	24%
Oppose	71%
Not sure	5%

Source: Red C
Methodology: Interviews with 1,006 Irish adults, conducted from Jul. 21 to Jul. 23, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.