July 24, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - More than half of voters in New Zealand would cast a ballot for the conservative National party in this year’s legislative election, according to a poll by AC Nielsen released by Fairfax Newspapers. 51 per cent of respondents would support National, down three points since June.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - More than half of voters in New Zealand would cast a ballot for the conservative National party in this year’s legislative election, according to a poll by AC Nielsen released by Fairfax Newspapers. 51 per cent of respondents would support National, down three points since June.

The governing Labour party is second with 35 per cent—up five points in a month—followed by the Greens with five per cent, New Zealand First with four per cent, the Maori Party with two per cent, and ACT with one per cent.

Labour leader Helen Clark has acted as New Zealand’s prime minister since December 1999. In November 2006, Don Brash—who had served as National’s leader since October 2003—announced his resignation and was substituted by finance spokesman John Key.

In the September 2005 ballot, Labour elected 50 lawmakers to the 121-seat House of Representatives, and assembled a coalition government with the Progressives. United Future and New Zealand First agreed to support the administration in confidence and supply votes for three years. National finished second, with 48 legislators.

On Jul. 21, Greens co-leader Russel Norman expressed dissatisfaction with the current government’s National Policy Statement for freshwater management, saying, "Objectives such as ‘Enabling well-being of people and communities’ and ‘Improving the quality of fresh water’, for example, are nonsense without specific dates and defined water quality standards. (...) This is more evidence that the safety of our water resources has been hijacked by vested interests with the ear of cabinet."

The next election is expected to take place in September 2008.

Polling Data

If an election was held today, which party would you vote for with your party vote?

	Jul. 2008	Jun. 2008	May 2008
National	51%	54%	56%
Labour	35%	30%	29%
Greens	5%	7%	6%
New Zealand First	4%	3%	5%
Maori Party	2%	2%	2%
ACT	1%	1%	1%
United Future	--	1%	1%

Source: AC Nielsen / Fairfax Newspapers
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 1,049 New Zealand voters, conducted from Jul. 9 to Jul. 15, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.