July 24, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Roughly one-third of people in Ecuador are willing to ratify a new constitution in a national referendum, according to a poll by Cedatos/Gallup. 32 per cent of respondents would vote in favour of the new draft later this year, down five points since early June.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Roughly one-third of people in Ecuador are willing to ratify a new constitution in a national referendum, according to a poll by Cedatos/Gallup. 32 per cent of respondents would vote in favour of the new draft later this year, down five points since early June.

Conversely, 24 per cent of respondents would vote against the new charter, and 44 per cent remain unsure.

Rafael Correa, a former finance minister, ran for president as an independent leftist under the Alliance Country (AP) banner. In November 2006, Correa defeated Álvaro Noboa of the conservative Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN) in a run-off with 56.69 per cent of the vote. He officially took over as Ecuador’s head of state in January 2007, and vowed to change the country’s Constitution. Correa’s party nominated no candidates to the National Congress.

In April 2007, Ecuadorian citizens participated in a referendum to enact a Constituent Assembly. The president’s proposal was backed by 82 per cent of all voters. In September, Correa’s supporters—running under the Movement Country (MP) banner—secured 80 seats in the 130-member Constituent Assembly, enough to enact changes without seeking compromises with political opponents.

In November, Ecuador’s Constituent Assembly officially began its work, and suspended the National Congress. The proposed Constitution must be ratified in a nationwide referendum in 2008.

On Jul. 18, a full constitutional draft was approved by the pro-government majority in the Constituent Assembly. Opposition members had stopped working on the document a week earlier and have said they will officially oppose it even if they cannot influence the final decision. The text includes a clause allowing for one consecutive presidential re-election. Two articles that would have legalized same-sex unions and given the indigenous Quechua tongue the status of official language were pulled out at the last minute.

The Electoral Court of Ecuador has scheduled the referendum for Sept. 28.

Earlier this month, Correa commented on the Constituent Assembly’s work, saying, "The constitution has been done in a very responsible fashion; it is beautiful. (...) It will become one of the most progressive [in Latin America] and change the neo-liberal model for a more social system."

Polling Data

How would you vote in the referendum to ratify the new constitution?

	Jul. 14	Jun. 6	May 22
In favour	32%	37%	41%
Against	24%	33%	31%
Not sure	44%	30%	28%

Source: Cedatos/Gallup
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,433 Ecuadorian adults, conducted from Jul. 11 to Jul. 14, 2008. Margin of error is 3.2 per cent.