July 23, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama is holding on to the top spot in this year’s United States presidential race, according to a poll by Gallup released by USA Today. 45 per cent of respondents would vote for the Illinois senator, while 42 per cent would support Republican Arizona senator John McCain.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama is holding on to the top spot in this year’s United States presidential race, according to a poll by Gallup released by USA Today. 45 per cent of respondents would vote for the Illinois senator, while 42 per cent would support Republican Arizona senator John McCain.

Support for Obama increased by one point since late June, while backing for McCain dropped by two points.

Yesterday, McCain discussed his views on the Iraq war, saying, "We have succeeded. Sadr city is safe. Basra is safe. Mosul is safe. The people of Iraq are now leading normal lives. There will continue to be spectacular attacks. They are not completely defeated. (...) We have to continue with this strategy that has succeeded."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

Possible match-ups - 2008 U.S. presidential election

McCain v. Obama

	Jul. 21	Jun. 25	Jun. 6
Barack Obama (D)	45%	44%	46%
John McCain (R)	42%	44%	45%
Other	1%	1%	1%
Neither	6%	5%	4%
Not sure	6%	6%	4%

Source: Gallup / USA Today
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 2,645 registered American voters, conducted from Jul. 19 to Jul. 21, 2008. Margin of error is 2 per cent.