July 21, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The people who oppose Scotland’s independence from the United Kingdom outnumber those who would like to form a new state, according to a poll by YouGov published in the Daily Telegraph. 48 per cent of respondents would vote against negotiating a settlement towards independence, while 36 per cent would vote in favour.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The people who oppose Scotland’s independence from the United Kingdom outnumber those who would like to form a new state, according to a poll by YouGov published in the Daily Telegraph. 48 per cent of respondents would vote against negotiating a settlement towards independence, while 36 per cent would vote in favour.

The Kingdom of Scotland was an independent state until May 1, 1707, when the Acts of Union established the United Kingdom of Great Britain.

In 2005, British voters renewed the House of Commons. Scottish National Party (SNP) leader Alex Salmond launched his party’s campaign on Apr. 6—the anniversary of the Declaration of Arbroath. The statement—tabled in 1320—includes a commitment to Scotland’s sovereignty. Salmond said he wants Scotland to "stand in equality with the other countries of the world." The SNP won six of Scotland’s 59 seats in the lower house of the British Parliament.

In a 1997 referendum, voters in Scotland supported the creation of a legislative assembly with tax varying powers. In May 2007, Scottish voters renewed their Parliament. The SNP finished in first place with 47 of the legislature’s 129 seats, followed by the Labour party with 46 mandates. Salmond became first minister in a 49-46 Scottish Parliament vote, with the support of the SNP and the Greens.

In order to call a referendum on Scotland’s independence, the SNP’s proposal must be supported by 65 legislators. In August, Salmond revealed that the SNP would move away from its original "one question referendum" and instead table a white paper to start a "national conversation" about the future of Scotland. The vote would take place before 2010. Prior to her resignation in June, Labour leader Wendy Alexander expressed support for the referendum, drawing criticism from other Labour members for changing the party’s traditional policy on the issue.

In August 2007, the Scottish government introduced the "national conversation" website, which includes the white paper on independence titled "Choosing Scotland’s Future." Salmond described the document as "the starting point for the conversation and the people of Scotland can now carry it forward to reach an informed decision on their future."

On Jul. 15, John Mason, a Glasgow councillor and SNP candidate in the Glasgow East by-election, suggested that his party will continue to ask the Scottish people about their views on independence until it gets the right answer, saying, "When you ask someone to marry you, sometimes you have to persist."

Polling Data

The SNP wishes to hold a referendum on Scottish independence in due course. Voters would be asked whether they agree or disagree "that the Scottish government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state." How would you vote if such a referendum were held tomorrow?

I would vote Yes (i.e. for Scottish independence)	36%
I would vote No (i.e. against Scottish independence)	48%
Don’t know	14%
Would not vote	2%

Source: YouGov / Daily Telegraph
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,131 Scottish adults, conducted from Jul. 8 to Jul. 10, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

 

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