July 19, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama holds the upper hand in the United States presidential race, according to a poll by TNS released by ABC News and the Washington Post. 49 per cent of respondents would vote for the Illinois senator in this year’s ballot, while 46 per cent would back Arizona senator John McCain.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama holds the upper hand in the United States presidential race, according to a poll by TNS released by ABC News and the Washington Post. 49 per cent of respondents would vote for the Illinois senator in this year’s ballot, while 46 per cent would back Arizona senator John McCain.

Support for Obama increased by two points since June, while backing for McCain fell by the same margin.

In a contest incorporating two other candidates, Obama is first with 49 per cent, followed by McCain with 39 per cent, independent candidate Ralph Nader with five per cent, and Libertarian nominee Bob Barr with two per cent.

On Jul. 17, Barr discussed his views on environmental affairs, saying, "Global warming is a reality as most every organization that has studied the matter has concluded, whether conservative-leaning, liberal oriented or independent. I am, however, also aware that scientists differ on its causes, impact and remedies. I remain firmly committed to free market solutions and innovations to address this issue; not tax-driven policies."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were John McCain, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat, for whom would you vote?

	Jul. 2008	Jun. 2008	May 2008
Barack Obama (D)	49%	47%	51%
John McCain (R)	46%	48%	44%
Other / Neither	3%	3%	3%
Won’t vote	--	--	1%
Unsure	2%	2%	1%

If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, John McCain, the Republican, Bob Barr, the Libertarian Party candidate, and Ralph Nader, as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?

Barack Obama (D)	49%
John McCain (R)	39%
Ralph Nader (I)	5%
Bob Barr (L)	2%
None / Other / Unsure	6%

Source: TNS / ABC News / Washington Post
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,119 American adults, conducted from Jul. 10 to Jul. 13, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.