Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Obama Leads McCain, Other Rivals in U.S.

July 18, 2008

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama remains ahead of Republican John McCain in the United States, according to a poll by Zogby International released by Reuters. 47 per cent of respondents would vote for the Illinois senator in this year’s presidential election, while 40 per cent would support the Arizona senator.

Support for Obama remained stable since June, while backing for McCain fell by two points.

In a contest incorporating two other candidates, Obama is first with 46 per cent, followed by McCain with 36 per cent, independent candidate Ralph Nader with three per cent, and Libertarian nominee Bob Barr also with three per cent.

On Jul. 10, Nader discussed his bid, saying, "My purpose is to have a national impact, arousing people all over the country to challenge the two-party dictatorship and encouraging people to run as independents and third-party candidates at the local state and national levels. In this manner, you stimulate the local through the national and the national through the local. This could not be done running in a state for senator or governor."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

McCain v. Obama - 2008 U.S. presidential election

 

Jul. 2008

Jun. 2008

May 2008

Barack Obama (D)

47%

47%

48%

John McCain (R)

40%

42%

40%

Other / Unsure

13%

11%

12%

McCain v. Obama - 2008 U.S. presidential election (w/ Nader and Barr)

 

Jul. 2008

Jun. 2008

May 2008

Barack Obama (D)

46%

45%

47%

John McCain (R)

36%

40%

37%

Ralph Nader (I)

3%

3%

4%

Bob Barr (L)

3%

3%

3%

Other / Unsure

12%

10%

10%

Source: Zogby International / Reuters
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,113 likely American voters, conducted from Jun. 12 to Jun. 14, 2008. Margin of error is 3.0 per cent.

 

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