July 18, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Many people in Israel want the country to go to the polls before the end of this year, according to a survey by Maagar Mochot released by Israel Radio. 42 per cent of respondents want the impending election to the leadership of the governing Kadima party to result in a call for an early legislative ballot.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Many people in Israel want the country to go to the polls before the end of this year, according to a survey by Maagar Mochot released by Israel Radio. 42 per cent of respondents want the impending election to the leadership of the governing Kadima party to result in a call for an early legislative ballot.

Conversely, 33 per cent of respondents think Kadima’s new leader should simply form a new government with the same legislature without a new election.

In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by Ehud Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) and the Retired People’s Party (Gil) joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the government. Olmert’s coalition now has the support of 78 of the Knesset’s 120 members.

On May 12, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. Olmert is alleged to have illegally accepted hundreds of thousands of U.S. dollars from Moshe Talansky and other wealthy Jewish-American businessmen, either as illegal campaign contributions or bribes. Neither Olmert nor Talansky have been charged with any crime, but now Olmert is under investigation.

Following calls for his resignation while the investigation continues, Olmert—who has been the subject of other corruption probes in the past—said that he will step down only if the attorney general decides to indict him. If the prime minister resigns, a snap election could take place, or another member of Kadima could take over as head of government. Kadima will hold a primary ballot in September.

On Jul. 13, Israeli deputy prime minister and Kadima member Chaim Ramon said that whoever wins the leadership ballot will immediately form a new government, and then Olmert will step down. However, Ramon warned that gathering enough support from legislators to form a new government could be too difficult, adding, "In that case, Olmert could remain prime minister until March or April [2009]."

Polling Data

In your opinion, should the election of a new leader of Kadima this September lead to having new general elections or the formation of an alternative government with the same Knesset without elections?

Elections	42%
No elections	33%
Don’t know / Other replies	25%

Source: Maagar Mochot / Israel Radio
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 504 Israeli adults, conducted on Jul. 9, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.