July 14, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama holds an eight-point lead over Republican John McCain in the United States, according to a poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. 48 per cent of respondents would back the Illinois senator in this year’s presidential election, while 40 per cent would vote for the Arizona senator.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama holds an eight-point lead over Republican John McCain in the United States, according to a poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. 48 per cent of respondents would back the Illinois senator in this year’s presidential election, while 40 per cent would vote for the Arizona senator.

12 per cent of respondents are undecided. Support for Obama increased by one point since May, while backing for McCain fell by four points.

On Jul. 11, McCain discussed his views on the economy, saying, "No economic issue is more important than achieving strategic energy independence. (...) Senator Obama will raise your taxes. I won’t. You raise taxes in a bad economy, you eliminate jobs. I’m not going to let that happen."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

Now, suppose the 2008 presidential election were being held today. If you had to choose between (...) and (...), who would you vote for?

	Jun. 2008	May 2008	Apr. 2008
Barack Obama (D)	48%	47%	50%
John McCain (R)	40%	44%	44%
Other / Unsure	12%	9%	6%

Source: Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 2,004 American adults, conducted from Jun. 18 to Jun. 29, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.