June 30, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Hungarian Citizens Party (Fidesz) has maintained a solid lead over the ruling party, according to a poll by Tarki. 61 per cent of decided voters would back the largest opposition party in the next legislative election, down six points since May.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Hungarian Citizens Party (Fidesz) has maintained a solid lead over the ruling party, according to a poll by Tarki. 61 per cent of decided voters would back the largest opposition party in the next legislative election, down six points since May.

The ruling Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) is behind with 27 per cent—up four points in a month—followed by the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ) with four per cent, and the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) with three per cent.

Hungarian voters renewed their National Assembly in April 2006. The MSZP and the SZDSZ secured 210 of the legislative branch’s 386 seats, securing a full term for Socialist prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsany. Fidesz, led by Viktor Orban, elected 164 lawmakers. In June 2006, Gyurcsany introduced a fiscal "austerity package" of state subsidy reductions and tax increases, aimed at lowering the country’s fiscal deficit.

In September 2006, Gyurcsany was criticized after Hungary’s state radio aired portions of an audiotape—which had been recorded in May—in which he told members of the MSZP that his administration "lied throughout the past one and a half or two years" about the state of the country’s economy in order to win re-election. The prime minister’s words sparked a two-week riot that threatened to end his government.

Since mid-2007, Fidesz leader Orban has repeatedly called for an early legislative election. In April 2008, the SZDSZ abandoned the governing coalition citing "irreconcilable differences" with the Socialists on economic policies.

In early June, Gyurcsany said he believes Hungarians will understand that his government’s policies are taking the country in the right direction. The prime minister also accused the opposition of hampering the administration’s ability to work efficiently, claiming their style is of "brutality displeasing even Europe."

Polling Data

Which party would you vote for in the next legislative election? (Decided Voters)

	Jun. 2008	May 2008	Apr. 2008
Hungarian Citizens Party (Fidesz)	61%	67%	67%
Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP)	27%	23%	22%
Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ)	4%	3%	1%
Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF)	3%	4%	4%

Source: Tarki
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 Hungarian voters, conducted from Jun. 6 to Jun. 18, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.