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Likud Surges, Main Rivals Drop in Israel
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The opposition Likud party remains ahead of all other competitors in Israel’s political scene, according to a poll by Dialog published in Haaretz. The results suggest the party led by former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu could secure 35 seats in the Knesset.
The Labour party of Ehud Barak is second with 19 mandates, followed by the governing Kadima party of prime minister Ehud Olmert with 13 seats, Israel Our Home with 12 mandates, and the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) also with 11 seats.
In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, Shas and the Retired People’s Party (Gil) joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the government. Olmert’s coalition now has the support of 78 of the Knesset’s 120 members.
In June 2007, Barak defeated former Israeli admiral Ami Ayalon in the second round of the Labour party’s primary election with 51.2 per cent of the vote. In August, Netanyahu won the Likud contest with 73 per cent of the vote.
Netanyahu served as prime minister from June 1996 to July 1999, and resigned from Sharon’s cabinet—where he held the finance portfolio—after opposing the "Disengagement Plan." Barak headed the Israeli government from July 1999 to March 2001.
Last month, Israel Our Home leader Avigdor Lieberman voiced support for holding a legislative ballot, declaring, "Political instability, along with strategic instability, puts Israel at risk. Therefore, we must hold early elections." Lieberman also expressed dismay with the possibility of granting land concessions to Syria as part of a peace deal, adding, "The Golan Heights as much a part of Israel as much as Tel Aviv is. If we hand over the Golan, we won’t celebrate Israel’s 61st anniversary."
Polling Data
Prospective results of a Knesset election
(Results presented in seats)
|
May 2008 |
Nov. 2007 |
|
|
Likud (Consolidation) |
35 |
30 |
|
Labour |
19 |
23 |
|
Kadima (Forward) |
13 |
15 |
|
Israel Our Home (Yisrael Beiteinu) |
11 |
11 |
|
International Organization of |
11 |
9 |
|
Yahadut Hatorah (United Torah Judaism) |
6 |
6 |
|
National Union (Ikhud) and |
5 |
6 |
|
Together (Yachad) |
5 |
4 |
|
Social Justice (Tzedek Hevrati) |
2 |
4 |
|
Green Party (Yerukim) |
2 |
-- |
|
Arab parties |
11 |
10 |
|
Gil (Retired People’s Party) |
-- |
2 |
Source: Dialog / Haaretz
Methodology: Interviews with 467 Israeli adults, conducted on May 27 and May 28, 2008. Margin of error is 5 per cent.