May 23, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Fatah is the most popular political organization in the Palestinian territories, according to a poll by Arab World for Research & Development. 30.8 per cent of respondents would vote for Fatah in the next election to the Palestinian Legislative Council.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Fatah is the most popular political organization in the Palestinian territories, according to a poll by Arab World for Research & Development. 30.8 per cent of respondents would vote for Fatah in the next election to the Palestinian Legislative Council.

Hamas is second with 21.8 per cent, followed by Independent Palestine and the Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa list, both with 2.7 per cent. Support is lower for Freedom and Social Justice, Al Badil, Third Way, Freedom and Independence, and Social Justice.

Fatah candidate Mahmoud Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot in the Palestinian Territories with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

In February 2007, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas. In June, amid a wave of violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza. Abbas issued a decree to form a 12-member emergency government based in the West Bank and expelled Hamas from the administration. Fatah member Salam Fayyad was appointed as prime minister by Abbas.

In November 2007, Abbas and leaders from the United States, Israel and several Arab countries attended an international conference on Middle East affairs in Annapolis, Maryland. The meeting was brokered by U.S. president George W. Bush. On Nov. 27, Abbas and Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert announced they would work towards having a peace treaty signed by the end of 2008, which would include the creation of a Palestinian state.

The Islamic Jihad organization has been launching Qassam rockets into Israel from Gaza almost daily since Hamas took control of the territory. Israel holds Hamas responsible for the attacks for allowing the Islamic Jihad and other groups to act against Israel. In January, Israel completely sealed off its borders with the Gaza Strip and launched military operations in Gaza.

On May 10, Abbas hailed an offer by Hamas to reconcile the split Palestinian Territories, but insisted that a pre-condition to start talks is that Hamas give up its control of the Gaza strip. Senior Fatah member Qadoura Fares declared: "The reconciliation is a national and a strategic necessity for the Palestinian people that requires important acts (by Hamas)."

Polling Data

If Palestinian Legislative Council elections took place today, which one of the following groups / lists would you vote for?

Fatah	30.8%
Change and Reform (Hamas)	21.8%
Independent Palestine	2.7%
Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa	2.7%
Freedom and Social Justice	1.7%
Al Badil	0.9%
Third Way	0.8%
Freedom and Independence	0.5%
Social Justice	0.3%
I have not decided yet	13.5%
Will not vote	24.4%

Source: Arab World for Research & Development
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,200 Palestinian adults in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, conducted from May 3 to May 5, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.