May 17, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Two-in-five people in Northern Ireland think they will not be united with the Republic of Ireland, according to a poll by Ipsos MORI published in the Belfast Telegraph. 40 per cent of respondents do not believe there will be a United Ireland within the next 50 years, while 35 per cent think this could happen.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Two-in-five people in Northern Ireland think they will not be united with the Republic of Ireland, according to a poll by Ipsos MORI published in the Belfast Telegraph. 40 per cent of respondents do not believe there will be a United Ireland within the next 50 years, while 35 per cent think this could happen.

Ireland remained divided along religious lines for several centuries, as Catholics and Protestants lived side-by-side, with different concepts of how their land should be administered. In 1921, after negotiations initiated by Michael Collins, Ireland was split into two entities: an independent Republic of Ireland in the south, and a British-controlled Northern Ireland. Decades of violence and confrontation have resulted in more than 3,000 deaths since the 1960s.

In October 2006, the major political parties from Northern Ireland accepted the St. Andrews Agreement. The document, proposed by the British and Irish governments, paved the way to restore self-governance in Northern Ireland. Key elements of the accord include the full acceptance of the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI), and the restoration of the Northern Ireland Assembly.

Following the March 2007 Assembly election, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein officially formed a power-sharing government with Ian Paisley as first minister and Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuiness as deputy prime minister.

In May 2007, Paisley traveled south to meet with then Irish prime minister Bertie Ahern in a historic ceremony of north-south reconciliation. Ahern declared while standing next to Paisley: "As we work to build a shared future, we are all coming to acknowledge that we have a shared and complex past. It is important for us all that we acknowledge and celebrate that history in all its complexity."

On Apr. 25, incoming DUP deputy leader Nigel Dodds said he will cooperate with rivals in the current coalition government but warned that his party still opposes the idea of having a united Ireland. Dodds said that Sinn Fein remains the DUP’s "political opponent" and declared: "They wish to take Northern Ireland out of the United Kingdom, they wish to drag us into a united Ireland and that is something we will resolutely oppose."

Polling Data

Do you agree or disagree with this statement? - "There will not be a United Ireland within the next 50 years."

Agree	40%
Neither	26%
Disagree	35%

Source: Ipsos MORI / Belfast Telegraph
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,004 adults in Northern Ireland, conducted from Apr. 18 to Apr. 21, 2008. No margin of error was provided.