May 14, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - New Zealand’s main conservative party continues to attract a large number of voters in the country, according to a poll by Roy Morgan International. 49.5 per cent of respondents would vote for the opposition National party in the next election to the House of Representatives.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - New Zealand’s main conservative party continues to attract a large number of voters in the country, according to a poll by Roy Morgan International. 49.5 per cent of respondents would vote for the opposition National party in the next election to the House of Representatives.

The governing Labour is second with 35.5 per cent, followed by the Greens with 6.5 per cent, and New Zealand First with 4.5 per cent. Support is lower for the Maori Party, ACT, and United Future.

Labour leader Helen Clark has acted as New Zealand’s prime minister since December 1999. In November 2006, Don Brash—who had served as National’s leader since October 2003—announced his resignation and was substituted by finance spokesman John Key.

In the September 2005 ballot, Labour elected 50 lawmakers to the 121-seat House of Representatives, and assembled a coalition government with the Progressives. United Future and New Zealand First agreed to support the administration in confidence and supply votes for three years. National finished second, with 48 legislators.

Yesterday, finance minister Michael Cullen accused National leader Key of "obsessively" criticizing a government plan to buy back the country’s railway system, saying, "[Key’s] short-sighted obsession with the short-term aspects of the ‘deal’ might be appropriate for a trader at Merrill Lynch, but it’s worrying in someone who wants to be prime minister by Christmas. The truth is that when full details are made available—which the government would like to happen very soon—it will be clear that the medium to long-term business case for government ownership is compelling. (...) Mr. Key has publicly accused New Zealanders of suffering from ‘nostalgia’ if they think owning rail is a good idea."

The next election is expected to take place in September 2008.

Polling Data

If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?

	May 4	Apr. 20	Apr. 6
National	49.5%	50%	47%
Labour	35.5%	35.5%	34.5%
Greens	6.5%	6.5%	9%
New Zealand First	4.5%	3.5%	4%
Maori Party	2%	2.5%	3%
ACT	1%	1.5%	1.5%
United Future	1%	0.5%	0.5%
Progressives	--	--	0.5%

Source: Roy Morgan International
Methodology: Interviews with 850 New Zealand voters, conducted from Apr. 21 to May 4, 2008. No margin of error was provided.