May 12, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Most people in Hungary have turned against the governing Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) and now support the opposition, according to a poll by Tarki. 67 per cent of decided voters would back the Hungarian Citizens Party (Fidesz) in the next legislative election, while 22 per cent would vote for the MSZP.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Most people in Hungary have turned against the governing Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) and now support the opposition, according to a poll by Tarki. 67 per cent of decided voters would back the Hungarian Citizens Party (Fidesz) in the next legislative election, while 22 per cent would vote for the MSZP.

Support for Fidesz increased by two points since March, while backing for the MSZP fell by the same margin. The Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) is third with four per cent, followed by the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ) with one per cent.

Hungarian voters renewed their National Assembly in April 2006. The MSZP and the SZDSZ secured 210 of the legislative branch’s 386 seats, securing a full term for Socialist prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsany. Fidesz, led by Viktor Orban, elected 164 lawmakers. In June 2006, Gyurcsany introduced a fiscal "austerity package" of state subsidy reductions and tax increases, aimed at lowering the country’s fiscal deficit.

In September 2006, Gyurcsany was criticized after Hungary’s state radio aired portions of an audiotape—which had been recorded in May—in which he told members of the MSZP that his administration "lied throughout the past one and a half or two years" about the state of the country’s economy in order to win re-election. The prime minister’s words sparked a two-week riot that threatened to end his government.

Since mid-2007, Fidesz leader Orban has repeatedly called for an early legislative election. In April 2008, the SZDSZ abandoned the governing coalition citing "irreconcilable differences" with the Socialists on economic policies.

On May 7, Gyurcsany said his government would be compelled to resign if lawmakers approve two bills related to fiscal decisions that are backed by opposition parties. The prime minister declared: "If parliament were to adopt a tax law with the support of the opposition parties and opposed by the Socialists, it would end our governance. (...) There are two important acts: the budget act and the tax act. If those are not in the hands of the government, it means that the government must not stay in office."

Polling Data

Which party would you vote for in the next legislative election? (Decided Voters)

	Apr. 2008	Mar. 2008	Feb. 2008
Hungarian Citizens Party (Fidesz)	67%	69%	68%
Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP)	22%	20%	22%
Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF)	4%	5%	5%
Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ)	1%	2%	3%

Source: Tarki
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 Hungarian voters, conducted from Apr. 8 to Apr. 14, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.