May 11, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Adults in Scotland hold differing views on their future, according to a poll by YouGov released by the Daily Telegraph. 38 per cent of respondents would vote to retain the Scottish Parliament but giving it greater powers, while 34 per cent would keep the existing legislature.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Adults in Scotland hold differing views on their future, according to a poll by YouGov released by the Daily Telegraph. 38 per cent of respondents would vote to retain the Scottish Parliament but giving it greater powers, while 34 per cent would keep the existing legislature.

In addition, 19 per cent of respondents would vote to form a completely separate state outside the United Kingdom, while nine per cent would not vote if a referendum on these questions took place.

The Kingdom of Scotland was an independent state until May 1, 1707, when the Acts of Union established the United Kingdom of Great Britain.

In 2005, British voters renewed the House of Commons. Scottish National Party (SNP) leader Alex Salmond launched his party’s campaign on Apr. 6—the anniversary of the Declaration of Arbroath. The statement—tabled in 1320—includes a commitment to Scotland’s sovereignty. Salmond said he wants Scotland to "stand in equality with the other countries of the world." The SNP won six of Scotland’s 59 seats in the lower house of the British Parliament.

In a 1997 referendum, voters in Scotland supported the creation of a legislative assembly with tax varying powers. In May 2007, Scottish voters renewed their Parliament. The SNP finished in first place with 47 of the legislature’s 129 seats, followed by the Labour party with 46 mandates. Salmond became first minister in a 49-46 Scottish Parliament vote, with the support of the SNP and the Greens.

In order to call a referendum on Scotland’s independence, the SNP’s proposal must be supported by 65 legislators. In August, Salmond revealed that the SNP will move away from its original "one question referendum" and instead table a white paper to start a "national conversation" about the future of Scotland. The vote would take place before 2010.

In August 2007, the Scottish government introduced the "national conversation" website, which includes the white paper on independence, titled "Choosing Scotland’s Future." Salmond described the document as "the starting point for the conversation and the people of Scotland can now carry it forward to reach an informed decision on their future."

On May 8, Scottish Labour leader Wendy Alexander dared Salmond to call a referendum on independence, saying, "We believe that the uncertainty is damaging Scotland. I and my colleagues have therefore offered our support to bring this issue forward now. We believe that Scotland deserves a choice sooner rather than later. The first minister tells us that over 80 per cent of Scots want a referendum—so why are we still waiting?"

Salmond dismissed Alexander’s call, declaring, "Week after week, Wendy Alexander comes and demands that we stick to the SNP manifesto—attacks us for not doing so. Now she’s telling us we shouldn’t stick to the manifesto and the 2010 date. Does she not feel her credibility on keeping manifesto promises is being somewhat damaged by this process?"

Polling Data

If there were a referendum and the following were the options how would you vote?

In favour of retaining the Scottish Parliament with its existing powers	34%
In favour of retaining the Scottish Parliament but giving it greater powers	38%
In favour of a completely separate state outside the UK	19%
Would not vote	9%

Source: YouGov / Daily Telegraph
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,175 Scottish voters, conducted from Apr. 24 to Apr. 28, 2008. No margin of error was provided.