May 10, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Serbia’s legislative election is headed for a close finish, according to a poll by Strategic Marketing & Media Research Institute. 33.2 per cent of respondents would vote for the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) in tomorrow’s ballot, while 31.5 per cent would back the For a European Serbia coalition.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Serbia’s legislative election is headed for a close finish, according to a poll by Strategic Marketing & Media Research Institute. 33.2 per cent of respondents would vote for the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) in tomorrow’s ballot, while 31.5 per cent would back the For a European Serbia coalition.

The alliance of the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and New Serbia (NS) is third with 13.8 per cent, followed by a three-party coalition that includes the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with 7.5 per cent, and a three-party alliance featuring the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) also with 7.5per cent.

The remnants of the Yugoslav Federation were transformed into Serbia and Montenegro in February 2003. Following the Balkan war, Kosovo was established as an independent part of Serbia under the protection of the United Nations (UN) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). In 2006, Montenegro became an independent state with full international and legal subjectivity.

In February, Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian government unilaterally declared the area’s independence. The Serbian government has not recognized the move, and withdrew its ambassadors from the countries that did.

In January, incumbent Boris Tadic of the Democratic Party (DS) defeated Tomislav Nikolic of the SRS in a presidential run-off, with 51.61 per cent of all cast ballots. On Mar. 13, Tadic dissolved the Serbian National Assembly and scheduled an early legislative election for May 11.

The European Union (EU) is trying to boost the chances of a victory for the pro-European coalition by offering closer ties with Serbia. On May 6, 17 European states offered free visas to Serbians. A joint communiqué issued by the French Foreign Ministry stated: "We have decided to make full usage of the flexibility referred to by the European Commission to provide free visas to all individual applicants for whom that is a possibility."

On May 8, Nikolic called on the EU to acknowledge that Kosovo is a part of Serbia, adding, "You will have Serbia as a friend. Otherwise, you don’t have friends in Serbia."

Polling Data

Which party would you vote for in the parliamentary election?

Serbian Radical Party (SRS)	33.2%
For a European Serbia Democratic Party (DS) G-17 Plus Serbia Renewal Movement (SPO) Social Democratic Party (SDP) League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina (LSV)	31.5%
DSS-NS Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) New Serbia (NS)	13.8%
LDP-SDU-DHSS Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Social Democratic Union (SDU) Christian Democratic Party of Serbia (DHSS)	7.5%
SPS-PUPS-JS Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) Party of United Pensioners of Serbia (PUPS) United Serbia (JS)	7.5%

Source: Strategic Marketing & Media Research Institute
Methodology: Interviews with 1,000 Serb adults, conducted in April 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.