April 09, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - More people in Ecuador are expressing support for Rafael Correa, according to a poll by Cedatos/Gallup. 62 per cent of respondents approve of their president’s performance, up seven points since February.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - More people in Ecuador are expressing support for Rafael Correa, according to a poll by Cedatos/Gallup. 62 per cent of respondents approve of their president’s performance, up seven points since February.

Correa, a former finance minister, ran for president as an independent leftist under the Alliance Country (AP) banner. In November 2006, Correa defeated Álvaro Noboa of the conservative Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN) in a run-off with 56.69 per cent of the vote. He officially took over as Ecuador’s head of state in January 2007, and vowed to change the country’s Constitution. Correa’s party nominated no candidates to the National Congress.

In April 2007, Ecuadorian citizens participated in a referendum to enact a Constituent Assembly. The president’s proposal was backed by 82 per cent of all voters. In September, Correa’s supporters—running under the Movement Country (MP) banner—secured 80 seats in the 130-member Constituent Assembly, enough to enact changes without seeking compromises with political opponents.

In November, Ecuador’s Constituent Assembly officially began its work, and suspended the National Congress. The ad-hoc legislative body has six months to finish a draft. The proposed Constitution must be ratified in a nationwide referendum. The Constituent Assembly is expected to discuss a wide variety of topics, including the possibility of consecutive presidential re-election, as well as new oil and mining regulations.

On Mar. 1, the Colombian armed forces attacked a camp of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)—a left-wing armed group—almost two kilometres into the border with Ecuador, killing Raúl Reyes, also known as the "chancellor of the FARC" due to his role as the group’s international spokesperson. Reyes was one of seven top FARC commanders. The Colombian army had never killed or imprisoned a FARC commander before.

The operation in Ecuador was followed by fierce condemnation by Correa and Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez—his political ally and also head of a nation bordering Colombia. Since the incident took place, diplomatic relations between Ecuador and Colombia have not been fully restored.

Colombia’s fumigation of drug crops along the border with Ecuador has been a constant point of contention between the two nations. Ecuador has repeatedly asked Colombia to stop spraying fields with chemicals, claiming they are toxic for the soil and the population living in the area.

On Mar. 31, Ecuador launched legal action against Colombia before the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Ecuadorian foreign minister María Salvador declared: "Ecuador asks the court to declare Colombia’s air fumigation a violation of Ecuador’s sovereignty."

Polling Data

Do you approve or disapprove of Rafael Correa’s performance as president?

	Mar. 2008	Feb. 2008	Jan. 2008
Approve	62%	55%	57%
Disapprove	30%	38%	37%

Source: Cedatos/Gallup
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,327 Ecuadorian adults, conducted from Mar. 27 to Mar. 31, 2008. Margin of error is 3.7 per cent.