April 08, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Fernando Lugo of the Alliance for Change (APC) holds a larger advantage over his rivals in Paraguay’s presidential ballot, according to a poll by Ati Snead published by La Nación. 36.8 per cent of respondents would vote for the former Catholic Bishop in this month’s election, up two points since March.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Fernando Lugo of the Alliance for Change (APC) holds a larger advantage over his rivals in Paraguay’s presidential ballot, according to a poll by Ati Snead published by La Nación. 36.8 per cent of respondents would vote for the former Catholic Bishop in this month’s election, up two points since March.

Blanca Ovelar of the ruling National Republican Association - Red Party (ANR) is second with 26.4 per cent, followed by Lino Oviedo of the National Union of Ethical Citizens (UNACE) with 24.3 per cent, and Pedro Fadul of the Beloved Homeland Party (PPQ) with 2.8 per cent.

Nicanor Duarte won the April 2003 presidential election as the ANR candidate with 37.1 per cent of all cast ballots. The ANR has been involved in Paraguay’s government since 1947, even during the dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner. Duarte is not eligible for a new term.

In 1998, Oviedo was charged, convicted and sentenced for mutiny over an alleged coup against the government of Juan Carlos Wasmosy in April 1996. In October 2007, Paraguay’s Supreme Court annulled Oviedo’s conviction in a 6-3 decision, stating that his actions did not amount to mutiny, and effectively clearing him to take part in the presidential election. In September 2007, Lugo oversaw the creation of the APC—which brings together seven opposition parties.

On Apr. 4, Duarte said Ovelar would win the election "by more than 100,000 votes" and dismissed the APC, saying, "It is a pathetic alliance for looting, it does not represent change and they are already fighting. If they fight right now for a microphone, how will they behave when they are the government?"

The election is scheduled for Apr. 20. Presidential candidates in Paraguay are not compelled to garner more than 50 per cent of the vote in order to win the election.

Polling Data

Which of these candidates would you vote for in the next presidential election?

	Apr. 2008	Mar. 2008	Nov. 2007
Fernando Lugo (APC)	36.8%	34.8%	44.5%
Blanca Ovelar (ANR)	26.4%	28.9%	21.5%
Lino Oviedo (UNACE)	24.3%	23.0%	16.9%
Pedro Fadul (PPQ)	2.8%	1.9%	2.0%
Not sure	6.3%	11.4%	15.0%

Source: Ati Snead / La Nación
Methodology: Interviews with 1,536 Paraguayan adults, conducted from Mar. 29 to Apr. 1, 2008. Margin of error is 2.9 per cent.