April 02, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Bolivian president Evo Morales is keeping a stable rate of public support in major urban centres, according to a poll by Ipsos Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado. 56 per cent of respondents approve of the president’s performance, up one point since February.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Bolivian president Evo Morales is keeping a stable rate of public support in major urban centres, according to a poll by Ipsos Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado. 56 per cent of respondents approve of the president’s performance, up one point since February.

Morales—an indigenous leader and former coca-leaf farmer—won the December 2005 presidential election as the candidate for the Movement to Socialism (MAS), with 53.7 per cent of the vote. He officially took over as Bolivia’s head of state in January 2006 and vowed to "re-found Bolivia" by enacting a new constitution.

In August 2006, the National Constituent Assembly—an elected ad-hoc body tasked with re-writing the country’s constitution—held its first session. The assembly was supposed to sit for just one year, but the process was marred by discrepancies between opposition parties and pro-government factions about whether the charter should be approved by a simple majority, as well as an attempt by MAS legislators to introduce an article to allow the indefinite re-election of the president. Opposition parties believed this would give Morales a chance to remain in power for as long as he wants.

In November 2007, a draft constitution was approved inside a military base in the vicinity of Sucre, with the support of all pro-government assembly members. Three people died and 20 more were injured during protests staged by the opposition to complain about the change of venue. The proposed draft includes articles that allow for consecutive presidential re-election, the creation of 36 autonomous indigenous communities, and tighter government controls over private media outlets.

Santa Cruz governor Rubén Costas—a fierce Morales opponent—has called a referendum in an effort to increase his department’s autonomy within Bolivia, directly defying articles in the new constitution. People in Santa Cruz are expected to vote on this matter on May 4.

On Apr. 1, the Bolivian government requested help from the Organization of American States (OAS) and neighbouring countries to resolve the political crisis prompted by the upcoming plebiscite. Morales said that his administration "wants that, with help from these other institutions, the conservative opposition can sit down and begin a dialogue with us."

Polling Data

Do you approve or disapprove of Evo Morales’ performance as president?

	Mar. 2008	Feb. 2008	Dec. 2007
Approve	56%	55%	56%
Disapprove	40%	40%	40%

Source: Ipsos Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado
Methodology: Interviews with 1,025 Bolivian adults in La Paz, El Alto, Cochabamba and Santa Cruz, conducted in March 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.