March 29, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - If Colombian president Álvaro Uribe were able to seek a third consecutive term, he would easily defeat his opponents, according to a poll by YanHaas released by RCN. 56.84 per cent of respondents would vote for Uribe if his name was included in the next presidential ballot.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - If Colombian president Álvaro Uribe were able to seek a third consecutive term, he would easily defeat his opponents, according to a poll by YanHaas released by RCN. 56.84 per cent of respondents would vote for Uribe if his name was included in the next presidential ballot.

Medellín mayor Sergio Fajardo is second with 9.04 per cent, followed by Bogotá mayor Luis Eduardo Garzón with five per cent, pro-Uribe lawmaker and leader of the Radical Change (CR) party Germán Vargas Lleras with three per cent, and current ambassador of Colombia in Spain Noemí Sanín with 2.87 per cent.

Support is lower for agriculture minister Andrés Felipe Arias, leader of the opposition leftist Democratic Independent Pole (PDI) Carlos Gaviria, former Bogotá mayor Antanas Mockus, former Colombian president César Gaviria, and defence minister Juan Manuel Santos.

Uribe has been Colombia’s president since August 2002. In the May 2006 election, he won a new four-year term with 62.2 per cent of all cast ballots. He was able to run again after pro-Uribe lawmakers in the House of Representatives and the Constitutional Court officially sanctioned a plan to allow immediate presidential re-election. After issuing its ruling, the court warned that the clause was not valid for the unlimited re-election of the head of state.

Despite several scandals surrounding his presidency—including the imprisonment of a dozen pro-government lawmakers for having ties with illegal paramilitary groups—Uribe has been commended for his security policies, especially his hard stand against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a radical left-wing armed group.

The largest Latin American guerrilla finances its operations through kidnappings, and by trading drugs and precious metals. More than 700 people—and by some accounts more than 3,000—are currently being held in captivity by the FARC. Almost 50 of them are politicians, police and army officers that the FARC intends to use for the purposes of negotiating the release of its incarcerated members.

In October 2007, Luis Guillermo Giraldo—leader of the pro-Uribe Party of the U—announced he would create the "promoters’ committee", a group charged with gathering signatures to call a referendum on whether Uribe should be allowed to run for a third term in office. The group finished its task on Mar. 12. A government agency has said it will confirm the validity of the signatures within the next four weeks.

On Mar. 26, PDI senator Jesús Bernal Amorocho said his party is calling for the Conservative Party (PC) and Vargas Lleras’ CR to form an "anti re-election" alliance, saying, "We basically think that a presidential re-election closes democratic spaces. This is not a proposal against the president, but one to defend democracy."

Polling Data

If the next presidential election were held today and incumbent Álvaro Uribe was among the candidates, which of the following people would you vote for?

Álvaro Uribe	56.84%
Sergio Fajardo	9.04%
Luis Eduardo Garzón	5.00%
Germán Vargas Lleras	3.00%
Noemí Sanín	2.87%
Andrés Felipe Arias	2.22%
Carlos Gaviria	2.00%
Antanas Mokcus	1.45%
César Gaviria	1.37%
Juan Manuel Santos	1.17%
Other / Undecided	17.04%

Source: YanHaas / RCN
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 600 likely Colombian voters in the cities of Barranquilla, Bogotá, Bucaramanga, Cali and Medellin, conducted in March 2008. Margin of error is 5 per cent.